Keon Ellis presents a fascinating dead-even prop at 50% over rate across 12 games, but the +1.2 differential above his typical line reveals consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers. Despite the balanced record, Ellis is averaging 8.33 points against a 7.17 line, suggesting a lean over approach.
Expert Analysis
The surface-level 6-6 record masks a more compelling story in Ellis's scoring props. His 8.33-point average significantly outpaces the typical 7.17 line, creating a meaningful 1.16-point edge that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. This differential suggests books are pricing Ellis based on his traditional bench role rather than his expanded opportunities when given minutes. The current three-game over streak aligns with this pattern of consistent line-beating performance. However, the -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates the market has been reasonably efficient at the closing numbers, meaning the edge likely comes from early line movement or specific game situations. Ellis's scoring is highly dependent on playing time and role within Sacramento's rotation, making game-by-game context crucial. His ability to exceed expectations consistently points to either sustainable skill development or systematic undervaluation of his offensive contributions. The lack of dramatic variance in either direction suggests a player finding his NBA footing with more predictable output than typical young guards.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +1.16 average differential above the line is the strongest indicator here, suggesting consistent undervaluation despite the even record. Target games where Ellis projects for 20+ minutes or when Sacramento's backcourt depth is compromised. The main risk is his role volatility as a young player in a competitive Western Conference rotation.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 13.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 17.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 16.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare Keon Ellis props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keon Ellis's Points prop record all games?
Keon Ellis has hit the over on his points prop in exactly 6 of 12 games (50.0%) this season, creating a perfectly balanced 6-6-0 record with identical -4.5% ROI on both over and under bets across his sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keon Ellis Points all games?
Lean over on Ellis's points props. His 8.33 average significantly beats the typical 7.17 line by 1.16 points, and he's currently on a three-game over streak, suggesting the market consistently undervalues his scoring ability.
What's Keon Ellis's average Points all games?
Ellis averages 8.33 points per game, which sits 1.16 points above his typical prop line of 7.17. This meaningful differential suggests oddsmakers are pricing him conservatively relative to his actual production when given opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ellis points overs when he projects for expanded minutes due to injuries or rest days in Sacramento's backcourt. His scoring is highly role-dependent, making game context more important than historical trends for optimal betting spots.