Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's steals prop presents a compelling under opportunity with a dismal 33.3% over rate across 21 games. The veteran guard averages just 1.1 steals against a 1.45 line, creating a significant -0.4 differential that has produced +27.3% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Caldwell-Pope's defensive profile has shifted dramatically since his championship days with the Lakers. At 31, his defensive intensity has waned as Memphis utilizes him primarily as a perimeter shooter and secondary ball-handler rather than a disruptive defensive presence. The 1.45 line appears inflated based on outdated reputation rather than current production. His role alongside Ja Morant and Desmond Bane limits his defensive responsibilities, as the Grizzlies prefer him focused on spacing and transition offense. The persistent under trend spanning multiple months suggests this isn't variance but a fundamental mismatch between expectation and reality. Caldwell-Pope's steal rate has declined consistently as he's prioritized staying attached to shooters rather than gambling for deflections. The current four-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of conservative defensive positioning. Memphis's defensive scheme emphasizes team concepts over individual disruption, further limiting his steal opportunities. The -0.4 differential represents one of the larger gaps between production and expectation among veteran guards, indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced defensive impact.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 33.3% over rate and +27.3% under ROI create a sustainable edge, though the sample size demands caution. Caldwell-Pope's role prioritizes offensive spacing over defensive gambling, making the 1.45 line consistently beatable. Target this prop when Memphis faces slower-paced opponents or teams that limit transition opportunities, as these conditions further reduce his steal chances.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's Steals prop record all games?
Caldwell-Pope's steals prop record shows 7 overs and 14 unders across 21 games, translating to a poor 33.3% over rate. This represents one of the more reliable under trends among veteran guards this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Steals all games?
Bet under on Caldwell-Pope's steals prop. His 1.1 average significantly trails the 1.45 line, producing +27.3% ROI on unders. His defensive role has diminished as Memphis prioritizes his offensive contributions over defensive gambling.
What's Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's average Steals all games?
Caldwell-Pope averages 1.1 steals per game, falling 0.4 short of the typical 1.45 line. This substantial gap reflects his transition from aggressive defender to role player focused on spacing and shooting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Caldwell-Pope steals unders against slower-paced teams or when Memphis faces limited transition opportunities. His steal production relies heavily on fast-break situations, making these conditions ideal for under bets.