Kelly Oubre Jr.'s three-point props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% over the last 10 games with a devastating -23.6% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 1.6 makes against a 1.5 line, the minimal 0.1 edge hasn't translated to consistent overs. The under trend shows strong betting value.
Expert Analysis
Kelly Oubre Jr.'s three-point shooting presents a classic case of market inefficiency, where a slight statistical edge fails to generate profitable betting outcomes. His 1.6 average against the standard 1.5 line suggests books are pricing him correctly, yet the 4-6 over/under record tells a different story. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates systematic overvaluation by the betting public, likely driven by Oubre's reputation as a streaky shooter who can explode for big nights. However, the consistency factor works against three-point props - even elite shooters face variance that makes hitting specific thresholds challenging. Oubre's role in Philadelphia's system appears to create feast-or-famine scenarios rather than steady production. The 14.6% ROI on unders suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his actual output patterns. With limited sample context and no situational splits available, the trend appears driven by fundamental shot variance rather than specific matchup factors. The recent one-game over streak doesn't signal trend reversal given the broader 10-game pattern. This disconnect between average performance and betting outcomes often persists when public perception lags behind actual role changes or shooting regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% under ROI combined with only 40% overs creates a profitable angle despite the slight statistical edge favoring overs. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5, as Oubre's variance-heavy shooting profile makes the under more reliable than his 1.6 average suggests. Main risk is a hot shooting night derailing the trend, but the 10-game sample shows consistent underperformance relative to expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kelly Oubre Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Kelly Oubre Jr. has gone over his three-pointers made prop just 4 times in 10 games (40% rate) with a 4-6-0 record. Under bettors have generated a positive 14.6% ROI while overs have lost -23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kelly Oubre Jr. 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Kelly Oubre Jr.'s three-pointers made props. The 14.6% under ROI and 60% hit rate over 10 games creates profitable value, especially at the standard 1.5 line despite his 1.6 average.
What's Kelly Oubre Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Kelly Oubre Jr. averages 1.6 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which is 0.1 above the typical 1.5 line. However, this minimal edge hasn't translated to profitable overs, hitting just 40% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kelly Oubre Jr. three-point unders when the line is set at 1.5, as his shooting variance creates more reliable under results despite the slight statistical edge. Avoid after extended cold streaks when regression becomes likely.