Kelly Oubre Jr.'s three-point shooting at home has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 31.2% of overs across 16 games with a devastating -0.4 differential from the typical 1.62 line. The 5-11-0 record translates to exceptional +31.2% ROI on unders, making this one of the season's most reliable fade spots.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of systematic overvaluation in Oubre's home three-point props. His 1.25 average sits nearly half a make below the standard 1.62 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted for his home court struggles. This isn't a small sample fluke—16 games provide substantial evidence of a persistent pattern. The most telling indicator is the brutal seven-game under streak that demonstrates consistent underperformance in familiar surroundings. While Oubre shoots a respectable volume from deep, his home conversion rate appears compromised by factors that haven't corrected over nearly four months of data. The -40.3% ROI on overs represents one of the worst betting propositions in the props market, while the corresponding under ROI of +31.2% ranks among the season's most profitable trends. The recent two-game over streak might tempt contrarian thinking, but it pales against the overwhelming evidence of home court three-point struggles. Without significant role changes or injury context to explain away this trend, the mathematical edge remains heavily tilted toward continued underperformance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Oubre's home three-point props represent one of the season's most reliable under plays, with the 1.25 average creating consistent value against inflated lines. Target this spot when the line sits at 1.5 or higher for maximum edge. The primary risk is a potential hot shooting night breaking the pattern, but the sample size and consistency make this a high-conviction fade until the market properly adjusts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kelly Oubre Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Kelly Oubre Jr. has gone under his three-point prop in 11 of 16 home games (68.8% under rate) with a 5-11-0 record. His 1.25 home average sits well below the typical 1.62 line, creating a -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kelly Oubre Jr. 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Oubre's home three-point props offer exceptional value with +31.2% ROI on unders. The 68.8% under rate and consistent -0.4 line differential make this one of the season's most reliable fade spots.
What's Kelly Oubre Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Oubre averages just 1.25 three-pointers made in home games, significantly below the standard 1.62 line. This -0.4 differential represents substantial underperformance and creates consistent betting value for under backers across his 16-game home sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Oubre's home three-point unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher for maximum value. His consistent underperformance at Wells Fargo Center makes home games the ideal spot, especially given the market's failure to properly adjust the lines downward.