Kelly Oubre Jr.'s blocks prop has been a consistent under play, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders. Despite a recent 3-game over streak, the underlying data strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Kelly Oubre Jr.'s blocks production reveals a player whose defensive impact doesn't translate to consistent shot-blocking numbers. At 0.5 blocks per game over this 10-game sample, Oubre Jr. is meeting his typical line but doing so inconsistently, creating value on the under side. The 40% over rate masks the true story - when Oubre Jr. goes under, he tends to stay under, as evidenced by his longest under streak of 5 games compared to just 3 for overs. This pattern reflects his role as a perimeter-oriented forward who generates steals more than blocks. The recent 3-game over streak appears to be variance rather than a sustainable shift, especially given that his season-long blocking rate hasn't shown meaningful improvement. Oubre Jr.'s defensive positioning and the 76ers' scheme typically have him challenging shots on the perimeter rather than protecting the rim. The +14.6% ROI on unders over this span demonstrates that books may be setting this line based on occasional spike games rather than his true baseline production. His blocking comes in bunches when opponents attack his side of the floor, but those opportunities are inconsistent game-to-game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% under ROI and 60% under rate over 10 games suggests consistent value, even with the recent over streak potentially inflating the line. Target this under when Oubre Jr. faces teams that operate primarily through guards and avoid interior attacks, as his rim protection opportunities become even more limited in those matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kelly Oubre Jr.'s Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Kelly Oubre Jr. has gone 4-6 over/under on his blocks prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This translates to a -23.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors enjoyed a +14.6% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kelly Oubre Jr. Blocks last 10 games?
Bet the under on Kelly Oubre Jr.'s blocks prop. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI over his last 10 games shows consistent value, despite his current 3-game over streak which appears to be short-term variance.
What's Kelly Oubre Jr.'s average Blocks last 10 games?
Kelly Oubre Jr. is averaging exactly 0.5 blocks over his last 10 games, matching the typical 0.5 line perfectly. However, this average masks inconsistent game-to-game production that has favored under bettors with superior returns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kelly Oubre Jr.'s blocks under against guard-heavy teams that avoid interior attacks. His perimeter defensive role limits rim protection opportunities, making unders most valuable when opponents rely on outside shooting and pick-and-roll actions.