Kelly Olynyk's three-point prop shows modest profitability with a 52.6% over rate (10-9 record) and 0.89 average against a 0.76 line. The +0.13 differential suggests consistent market undervaluation, though the edge is narrow. Lean Over with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
Kelly Olynyk's three-point production presents a subtle but exploitable market inefficiency. His 0.89 average against the typical 0.76 line represents a meaningful 17% gap that the market consistently fails to capture. The 52.6% over rate across 19 games indicates steady value, particularly when considering Olynyk's role as Toronto's primary stretch big. His current four-game over streak aligns with his natural shooting variance rather than unsustainable hot shooting. The longest under streak of six games suggests the market occasionally overcorrects, creating even stronger over opportunities. Olynyk's three-point attempts remain consistent regardless of game script, as his floor-spacing role doesn't diminish in blowouts like traditional volume stats. The modest +0.5% ROI on overs reflects the tight nature of this edge, but the negative 9.6% ROI on unders reveals where the market consistently misprices. Without situational splits available, the trend appears stable across various contexts. The key concern is sample size regression, though Olynyk's established role and shooting mechanics suggest this differential reflects genuine market mispricing rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent 0.13 differential between Olynyk's average and the line creates sustainable value despite the narrow edge. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5 or lower, where his 0.89 average provides maximum leverage. Main risk is the tight margins requiring precise bankroll management and selective spot-picking.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Kelly Olynyk props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kelly Olynyk's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Kelly Olynyk's three-pointers made prop shows a 10-9 over/under record (52.6% overs) across 19 games from February to April 2024. He's currently on a four-game over streak with his longest under streak being six games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kelly Olynyk 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean over on Kelly Olynyk's three-pointers made props. His 0.89 average significantly exceeds the typical 0.76 line, creating consistent value. The market shows negative ROI on unders (-9.6%) while overs maintain slight profitability (+0.5%).
What's Kelly Olynyk's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Kelly Olynyk averages 0.89 three-pointers made per game against a typical line of 0.76. This +0.13 differential represents a 17% gap where the market consistently undervalues his three-point production in Toronto's offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kelly Olynyk three-point props when the line is set at 0.5 or lower for maximum value. His consistent floor-spacing role makes game script less relevant, though avoid back-to-back situations where rest management might limit minutes.