Keldon Johnson's three-point props on one day rest present a slight under edge, hitting just 47.4% overs across 19 games with a modest 1.84 average against typical 1.76 lines. The -9.6% ROI on overs suggests books are pricing these props efficiently, making the under the marginally better play.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's three-point output on one day rest reveals a player whose shooting consistency deteriorates slightly when playing back-to-back scenarios. The 47.4% over rate across 19 games indicates a meaningful sample where the market has overvalued his shooting frequency in these spots. His 1.84 average represents just a 0.08 bump over typical lines, suggesting oddsmakers have already adjusted for rest patterns but may still be pricing him marginally high. The negative ROI on overs (-9.6%) coupled with break-even under returns (+0.5%) points to a systematic market inefficiency. Johnson's role as a secondary scorer means his three-point attempts can fluctuate based on game flow and Victor Wembanyama's usage, creating volatility that favors the under when books set lines assuming consistent volume. The current two-game under streak aligns with this broader pattern, though regression toward his season average remains possible. Most concerning for over bettors is Johnson's tendency to defer in faster-paced games following rest, where his shot selection becomes more selective rather than aggressive.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 47.4% over rate and negative ROI on overs creates a sustainable edge for under bettors, particularly when Johnson's lines sit at 1.5 or higher. Target spots where San Antonio faces elite defenses or when game totals suggest slower pace, as Johnson becomes more selective with his attempts. The main risk is positive regression if his recent shooting efficiency improves.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Keldon Johnson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keldon Johnson's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Keldon Johnson goes 9-10 over/under on three-pointers made props with one day rest, hitting just 47.4% of overs across 19 games. His average of 1.84 makes sits slightly above typical 1.76 lines, creating modest value on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keldon Johnson 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Lean under on Johnson's three-point props with one day rest. The 47.4% over rate and -9.6% ROI on overs indicates systematic market overvaluation, while unders show break-even returns suggesting a sustainable edge exists.
What's Keldon Johnson's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Johnson averages 1.84 three-pointers made on one day rest compared to typical lines around 1.76. This 0.08 differential seems minimal, but the 47.4% over rate suggests books are still pricing him too aggressively in these situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson three-point unders when lines are 1.5 or higher following one day rest, especially against elite defenses or in projected low-scoring games. His secondary scoring role creates shot attempt volatility that consistently favors conservative betting approaches.