Keldon Johnson has been a consistent three-point over performer at home, hitting 9-5-0 (64.3%) with a massive +0.9 differential above his typical line. The 22.7% ROI on overs reflects genuine value in a favorable shooting environment. This trend merits strong consideration for over bets.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's home three-point success stems from San Antonio's pace-up style and his increased comfort level at the Frost Bank Center. The 2.57 average against a 1.71 line represents a 50% improvement over market expectations, indicating books are undervaluing his home shooting ability. This isn't random variance - Johnson benefits from familiar sight lines, consistent shooting backgrounds, and crowd energy that elevates his confidence from deep. The Spurs' emphasis on ball movement at home creates more open looks, and Johnson's role as a secondary scorer means he gets cleaner catch-and-shoot opportunities. The 64.3% over rate across 14 games provides solid sample size confidence, especially given the consistency of the underlying factors. However, the recent 2-game under streak suggests some regression, and Johnson's streaky nature means he can go cold quickly. Books may start adjusting lines higher if this trend continues, eroding the edge. The lack of split data limits deeper analysis, but the core metrics strongly support continued over performance in San Antonio's shooter-friendly home environment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Johnson's 50% improvement over market expectations at home creates legitimate value, supported by pace and comfort factors that should persist. Target overs when lines remain below 2.3, especially against teams that struggle defending the perimeter. Main risk is the recent cooling trend and potential line adjustments by books recognizing this pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Keldon Johnson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keldon Johnson's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Johnson has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 9 of 14 home games (64.3%) this season, with just 5 unders and no pushes. This 64.3% over rate has generated a strong 22.7% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keldon Johnson 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean over on Johnson's three-pointers made props at home. His 2.57 average significantly exceeds typical lines around 1.71, creating consistent value. However, exercise caution given his recent 2-game under streak and potential for line adjustments.
What's Keldon Johnson's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Johnson averages 2.57 three-pointers made in home games, compared to his typical prop line of 1.71. This +0.9 differential represents a 50% improvement over market expectations, indicating significant undervaluation by sportsbooks.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson's three-point overs when lines stay below 2.3 and San Antonio faces defensively weak perimeter teams. Avoid during back-to-back situations or when he's coming off poor shooting performances that might affect confidence.