Keldon Johnson's three-pointers made prop shows a massive under bias in away games, hitting just 30.8% overs across 13 games with a devastating -41.3% ROI on overs. His 1.15 average sits a full half-make below typical lines, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Johnson's road shooting struggles translating into exploitable betting value. Averaging just 1.15 three-pointers made away from home while lines consistently hover around 1.65 creates a fundamental disconnect that sharp bettors can exploit. This isn't a small sample fluke—thirteen games provides sufficient data to identify a genuine pattern, especially when the differential is this stark. Johnson's role as a secondary offensive option for San Antonio likely contributes to this trend, as road environments typically favor more conservative offensive approaches and tighter rotations that limit his three-point opportunities. The fact that he's managed just a 30.8% over rate while delivering a +32.2% ROI on unders suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his away game reality. Most concerning for over backers is the consistency—Johnson has hit multiple lengthy under streaks, including a five-game stretch, indicating this isn't random variance but a sustainable pattern rooted in his playing style and role adjustments on the road.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Johnson's 1.15 away average creates a significant edge against lines typically set around 1.65, and the -0.5 differential has proven remarkably consistent across 13 games. Target this prop when San Antonio plays road games against defensively competent teams that can limit transition opportunities and force half-court sets where Johnson's three-point volume naturally decreases.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keldon Johnson's 3-Pointers Made prop record away games?
Johnson has gone 4-9-0 on three-pointers made overs in away games, hitting just 30.8% with a brutal -41.3% ROI for over bettors while delivering +32.2% returns on unders across 13 road contests.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keldon Johnson 3-Pointers Made away games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Johnson's 1.15 away average consistently falls short of typical 1.65 lines, creating a reliable half-make edge that has delivered strong returns for under backers.
What's Keldon Johnson's average 3-Pointers Made away games?
Johnson averages 1.15 three-pointers made in away games, sitting a full 0.5 makes below typical lines around 1.65. This significant gap has created consistent value on the under side.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson's three-point unders on road games against teams with solid perimeter defense. Avoid when San Antonio plays pace-up teams or in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his attempts.