Keldon Johnson's three-pointers made prop shows a slight under bias with just 48.1% overs across 27 games. Despite averaging 1.89 makes versus a 1.69 line, the -8.1% over ROI indicates the market has adjusted properly. Current two-game under streak suggests continuing the fade.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's three-point production presents a classic case of market efficiency overcoming raw averages. While his 1.89 makes per game exceed the typical 1.69 line by 0.2 attempts, the negative ROI on overs reveals books have priced this differential accurately. The 48.1% over rate sits just below the break-even threshold, suggesting oddsmakers understand Johnson's role within San Antonio's offensive system better than surface numbers indicate. His shooting volume appears inconsistent game-to-game, creating variance that favors the under despite solid season averages. The current two-game under streak, following a season-high four-game over run, demonstrates this volatility. Without clear splits data showing favorable matchup conditions, Johnson's three-point props appear to be a market where books hold the edge. His role as a secondary scoring option means three-point attempts can fluctuate based on game script, opponent defense, and Victor Wembanyama's usage patterns. The slight negative correlation between his average and over success rate suggests regression toward more conservative shooting nights, particularly as defenses adjust to San Antonio's improved offensive schemes throughout the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The market has properly adjusted to Johnson's three-point capability, evidenced by the -8.1% over ROI despite his solid 1.89 average. Current two-game under streak aligns with the season-long 52% under rate. Target spots where San Antonio faces elite perimeter defenses or when Johnson's usage might decrease due to game script or teammate performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keldon Johnson's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Johnson's three-pointers made prop has gone over in 13 of 27 games (48.1%) this season. He's averaging 1.89 makes against typical lines around 1.69, but over bets have produced a -8.1% ROI, indicating the market has adjusted appropriately.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keldon Johnson 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean under on Johnson's three-pointers made props. Despite his solid 1.89 average, the 52% under rate and negative over ROI show the market has properly priced his inconsistent volume. Target favorable defensive matchups for stronger under conviction.
What's Keldon Johnson's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Johnson averages 1.89 three-pointers made per game this season, which is 0.2 above his typical line of 1.69. However, this raw differential hasn't translated to profitable over bets, with overs producing a -8.1% ROI across 27 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson three-point unders when San Antonio faces elite perimeter defenses or in potential blowout scenarios where his usage might decrease. Avoid betting overs without clear matchup advantages, as the market has efficiently priced his inconsistent shooting volume.