Keldon Johnson's assists prop presents a compelling home edge, hitting the over at a 69.2% clip (9-4-0) while averaging 4.77 assists against a 3.81 line. This +1.0 differential with 32.2% ROI suggests sustainable value in home overs.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's home assist production reflects the Spurs' evolving offensive system and his expanded playmaking role in familiar surroundings. The 4.77 average against a 3.81 line represents genuine market inefficiency, not random variance. At home, Johnson benefits from consistent rotations, better court vision familiarity, and increased confidence in his passing reads. The 69.2% over rate across 13 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only four unders total. This isn't a shooter getting hot—it's systematic role expansion. The Spurs' pace and ball movement philosophy naturally elevates Johnson's assist opportunities, particularly when he's comfortable at the Frost Bank Center. His longest over streak of five games suggests the trend has staying power, while the current single-game under streak feels more like natural regression than trend reversal. The sample size of 13 games provides statistical significance without being so large that books have fully adjusted. Johnson's dual forward-guard eligibility creates mismatches that generate assist opportunities, especially in home sets where San Antonio can exploit their system advantages.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 69.2% hit rate and +1.0 differential create legitimate value, though the recent under and limited sample warrant caution. Target games where Johnson starts or sees expanded minutes, particularly against uptempo opponents. The main risk is role reduction if Victor Wembanyama's development shifts offensive priorities, but current data strongly favors continued home assist production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keldon Johnson's Assists prop record home games?
Johnson's assists prop record in home games stands at 9-4-0 over/under (69.2% overs). He's averaging 4.77 assists per home game against a typical 3.81 line, generating a strong +32.2% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keldon Johnson Assists home games?
Lean over on Johnson's assists in home games. The 69.2% over rate and consistent +1.0 differential above the line create legitimate value, though recent form and sample size warrant measured confidence rather than aggressive betting.
What's Keldon Johnson's average Assists home games?
Johnson averages 4.77 assists in home games compared to the typical 3.81 line. This +1.0 differential represents significant value, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his expanded playmaking role in San Antonio's system at home.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson's assists overs in home games when he's starting or seeing expanded minutes, particularly against uptempo opponents. Avoid back-to-backs or games where Wembanyama's development might limit Johnson's ball-handling responsibilities and assist opportunities.