Keegan Murray's three-point production at home shows a slight bearish trend, hitting the over in just 48.5% of games with a -7.4% ROI on overs. His 2.58 home average barely exceeds typical 2.5 lines, creating minimal edge despite solid volume.
Expert Analysis
Murray's home three-point numbers reveal a player whose production consistently falls short of inflated market expectations. The 2.58 average against typical 2.5 lines suggests books are pricing him accurately, leaving little room for profitable over bets. The -7.4% ROI on overs indicates systematic overvaluation by the betting public, likely driven by Murray's reputation as a volume shooter and Sacramento's pace-heavy offense. However, the relatively flat under ROI at -1.6% suggests this isn't a slam-dunk fade situation either. The current two-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of inconsistency, where he's shown both four-game over runs and five-game under stretches. Murray's role as a complementary piece rather than a primary option means his three-point attempts can vary significantly based on game flow and teammate performance. The home environment theoretically should benefit his shooting rhythm, but the data suggests either neutral impact or that books are already accounting for any home advantage. Without stronger splits data showing clear patterns around rest, opponent quality, or teammate availability, this becomes a marginal spot where the slight negative over ROI provides the clearest signal.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -7.4% over ROI and 48.5% hit rate indicate systematic market overvaluation of Murray's home three-point production. Target unders when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, especially following strong shooting performances that might inflate public perception. The main risk is Sacramento's pace creating extra opportunities, but Murray's role as a secondary option limits his ceiling.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keegan Murray's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Murray's three-point prop record at home stands at 16-17-0 over/under across 33 games, hitting the over just 48.5% of the time with a concerning -7.4% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keegan Murray 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean under on Murray's home three-point props. The 48.5% over rate and negative ROI suggest the market consistently overvalues his production, especially at standard 2.5 lines.
What's Keegan Murray's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Murray averages 2.58 three-pointers made in home games, just 0.14 above typical 2.5 lines. This minimal edge explains why over bets have produced negative returns despite decent volume.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray three-point unders after strong shooting games when public perception might inflate lines, or when he's coming off high-usage performances that could lead to regression.