Julius Randle's three-point shooting has been a goldmine for under bettors this season, hitting just 45.0% of overs across 40 games with an 18-22-0 record. His 1.6 average trails the typical 1.82 line by 0.2 makes per game, generating a profitable +5.0% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about Julius Randle's three-point regression from his career-best 2020-21 campaign. His 1.6 makes per game represents a significant decline from the 2.6 he averaged during his All-Star season, yet sportsbooks continue setting lines around 1.82 based on outdated expectations. Randle's shot selection has shifted dramatically under Tom Thibodeau's system, with increased emphasis on interior scoring and facilitating for teammates like Jalen Brunson. The Knicks' deliberate pace (98.2 possessions per game, 25th in NBA) limits Randle's total shot attempts, while his 34.1% three-point percentage suggests he's pressing when he does let it fly from deep. The consistency of this trend is striking - even during his longest over streak of three games, the unders quickly reasserted dominance with a five-game run. Market inefficiency persists because casual bettors remember Randle's breakout shooting season, but the underlying metrics show a player who has fundamentally changed his approach. His usage rate remains high at 28.4%, but those touches increasingly come in the post and at the elbow rather than behind the arc.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.2 differential between Randle's actual production and typical lines creates consistent value, supported by his role evolution under Thibodeau. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, particularly in slower-paced matchups. The primary risk is a hot shooting night breaking the pattern, but his 34.1% accuracy suggests regression remains likely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Julius Randle's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Julius Randle has gone over his three-pointers made prop just 18 times in 40 games this season, posting a 45.0% over rate. His 18-22-0 record shows consistent value on the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Julius Randle 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Julius Randle's three-pointers made props. His 1.6 average trails typical 1.82 lines by 0.2 makes, generating +5.0% ROI for under bettors while overs lose -14.1%.
What's Julius Randle's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Julius Randle averages 1.6 three-pointers made per game this season, which falls 0.2 makes short of his typical 1.82 line. This negative differential has been consistent across 40 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Julius Randle three-point unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, especially against slower-paced opponents. His 34.1% accuracy and reduced volume create the best under opportunities.