Julius Randle's points props have been consistently undervalued over his last 10 games, hitting the under in 60% of opportunities with a -2.9 point differential from his average line. The 4-6 over/under record translates to a profitable +14.6% ROI on under bets, suggesting systematic line inflation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story of market inefficiency around Julius Randle's scoring output. His 24.2 points per game average over this 10-game stretch falls nearly three full points below the typical 27.1 line, creating consistent value on the under. This isn't random variance—it represents a fundamental disconnect between public perception and current reality. Randle's role within the Knicks' offensive system appears to have shifted, with increased ball movement and the emergence of other scoring options reducing his individual burden. The market hasn't fully adjusted to this new dynamic, continuing to price him based on his historical ceiling rather than current usage patterns. The 60% under rate paired with positive ROI indicates this trend has staying power rather than being a short-term aberration. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of the underperformance—even when Randle has decent scoring nights, he's rarely blowing past inflated lines by significant margins. The current two-game under streak reinforces this pattern, and with no obvious catalyst for increased usage on the horizon, the market correction appears incomplete.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -2.9 point differential and 60% under rate represent legitimate value that the market hasn't corrected. Randle's reduced offensive burden within New York's system creates consistent opportunities for under bets. The main risk is a potential blowout game that skews the average, but the pattern suggests these lines remain systematically inflated.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 23.5 | 19.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 25.5 | 17.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 25.5 | 30.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 26.5 | 18.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 31.5 | 24.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 27.5 | 32.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 28.5 | 20.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 28.5 | 39.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 27.5 | 8.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 26.5 | 35.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Julius Randle's Points prop record last 10 games?
Julius Randle has gone 4-6 over/under on his points props in his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time. He's averaging 24.2 points against lines typically set around 27.1, creating a -2.9 point differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Julius Randle Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Julius Randle's points props. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on under bets over his last 10 games indicates the market is consistently overvaluing his scoring output in the current Knicks system.
What's Julius Randle's average Points last 10 games?
Julius Randle is averaging 24.2 points over his last 10 games, which runs 2.9 points below his typical line of 27.1. This significant gap between performance and market expectations creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Julius Randle under bets when lines are set at 26+ points, particularly in games where the Knicks have multiple scoring options available. His reduced usage rate makes inflated lines based on past performance especially vulnerable.