Jrue Holiday's points props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.6% of overs across 58 games with an average of 11.12 points against a 12.34 line. The -1.2 differential and +2.0% under ROI indicate consistent value on the downside for Boston's defensive-minded guard.
Expert Analysis
Holiday's transition from Milwaukee's secondary scorer to Boston's defensive anchor explains this persistent under trend. The Celtics' offensive hierarchy places Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and often Kristaps Porzingis ahead of Holiday in scoring priority, limiting his shot attempts and reducing his ceiling. His 11.12 scoring average reflects his role as a facilitator and perimeter defender rather than a primary offensive weapon. The -1.2 differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Holiday's reduced offensive usage in Boston's system, where his value comes from intangibles that don't show up in the scoring column. This isn't a temporary adjustment period - it's Holiday's established role after 58 games of data. The veteran guard's efficiency remains solid, but volume drives totals, and Holiday simply isn't getting the touches he received in previous stops. Boston's deep roster and balanced attack mean Holiday rarely needs to carry offensive loads, making his under rate sustainable rather than due for regression. The 27-31 over record isn't close to the 50% break-even point, indicating a structural edge rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Holiday's reduced offensive role in Boston's system creates sustainable value on point totals, with books seemingly slow to adjust lines downward. Target this trend when Holiday faces elite perimeter defenders who can limit his already-modest scoring opportunities. The main risk is potential injuries to Tatum or Brown forcing Holiday into expanded offensive duties, but his established role makes the under the superior long-term play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 21.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-26 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 11.5 | 5.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 19.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 10.5 | 2.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 4.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-02 | OPP | 10.5 | 13.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 11.5 | 14.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jrue Holiday's Points prop record all games?
Holiday's points props show a 27-31-0 record (46.6% overs) across 58 games, averaging 11.12 points against a typical 12.34 line for a -1.2 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jrue Holiday Points all games?
Bet under on Holiday's points props. His 46.6% over rate and -1.2 average differential create sustainable value, as Boston's system limits his offensive role compared to previous teams where he was featured more prominently.
What's Jrue Holiday's average Points all games?
Holiday averages 11.12 points per game across all situations, running 1.2 points below his typical 12.34 line. This consistent shortfall reflects his transition to a more defensive-oriented role with the Celtics' deep roster.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holiday point unders when facing elite perimeter defenders or when Tatum and Brown are healthy and handling primary scoring duties. Avoid when Boston's top scorers are injured, forcing Holiday into expanded offensive responsibilities.