Jrue Holiday's assists prop shows a clear under bias in home games, hitting just 30.8% overs across 26 games with an average of 3.88 versus a 4.81 line. The -0.9 differential and +32.2% under ROI create a strong fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Holiday's home assist struggles stem from Boston's offensive system changes and his reduced playmaking role alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The 3.88 average represents a significant deviation from his career norms, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to his diminished floor general responsibilities. The 8-game under streak within this sample indicates persistent structural factors rather than random variance. Boston's pace at home (101.2 possessions) creates fewer assist opportunities compared to their road games, while Holiday's usage rate drops to 16.2% in familiar TD Garden surroundings where the Celtics rely more heavily on their primary ball handlers. The -0.9 differential is substantial enough to overcome typical juice, and the consistency of this trend across different opponents and game scripts suggests legitimate predictive value. However, the sample includes some outlier performances early in the season when Holiday was still adjusting to his role, potentially inflating the under percentage. Rest advantage could also be a factor, as home teams typically have better preparation time, allowing coaches to utilize Holiday more as a spot-up shooter rather than primary facilitator.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 30.8% over rate and -0.9 average differential create legitimate value, particularly when Holiday faces teams that limit transition opportunities. Target games against slower-paced opponents where Boston's half-court offense relies more on Tatum and Brown creation. Main risk is Holiday reverting to his natural playmaking instincts during extended stretches when the primary ball handlers rest.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jrue Holiday's Assists prop record home games?
Holiday's assists prop record in home games is 8-18-0 over/under, hitting just 30.8% overs. He averages 3.88 assists at TD Garden compared to typical lines around 4.81, creating a -0.9 differential that consistently favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jrue Holiday Assists home games?
Bet under on Holiday's assists in home games. The 30.8% over rate and +32.2% under ROI provide clear value, especially against slower-paced opponents where Boston relies more on Tatum and Brown for primary ball handling responsibilities.
What's Jrue Holiday's average Assists home games?
Holiday averages 3.88 assists in home games, nearly a full assist below the typical 4.81 line. This -0.9 differential reflects his reduced playmaking role in Boston's system when playing at TD Garden.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Holiday assist unders in home games against defensive teams that limit transition opportunities. Avoid when Boston's primary ball handlers are questionable, as Holiday would assume greater playmaking responsibilities and increase assist upside significantly.