Josh Hart's three-point shooting at home presents a clear contrarian opportunity, with unders hitting 73.7% of the time (14-5 record) while generating 40.7% ROI. His 1.0 home average sits meaningfully below the typical 1.08 line, creating consistent value on the under despite market expectations.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Hart's role transformation and home court dynamics. His 26.3% over rate at Madison Square Garden reflects a player whose primary value comes through rebounding, assists, and defensive versatility rather than perimeter scoring. The -0.1 differential between his 1.0 home average and 1.08 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Hart's reduced three-point volume in New York's system. Hart's shooting mechanics and shot selection become more conservative at home, where the Knicks often control pace and rely on interior scoring. The seven-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency in his restrained approach. Home crowds and familiar surroundings paradoxically lead to Hart taking fewer three-point attempts, as he focuses on facilitating for teammates like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. His 73.7% under rate isn't fluky - it reflects systematic role limitations that persist regardless of matchup. The 40.7% under ROI indicates the market consistently overvalues his three-point potential at home, creating sustainable edge for sharp bettors who recognize Hart's true contribution comes elsewhere.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hart's 73.7% under rate at home reflects genuine role constraints rather than variance, as his 1.0 average consistently falls short of market expectations around 1.08. The ideal conditions involve games where New York controls tempo and Hart focuses on playmaking duties. Main risk comes from potential blowouts where garbage time creates extra attempts, though his conservative approach typically persists even in comfortable wins.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Hart's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Hart's three-point prop record at home shows 14 unders and just 5 overs across 19 games, translating to a 73.7% under rate. This represents one of the most reliable under trends among rotation players this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Hart 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under on Hart's three-point props at home games. His 73.7% under rate and 40.7% ROI demonstrate clear market inefficiency, with his actual 1.0 average consistently falling short of typical 1.08 lines.
What's Josh Hart's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Hart averages exactly 1.0 three-pointers made per home game, which sits 0.08 makes below the typical market line of 1.08. This seemingly small gap creates consistent value given his conservative shot selection at Madison Square Garden.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hart three-point unders during home games where the Knicks control pace and he assumes primary playmaking duties. Avoid during potential blowouts or when New York faces elite perimeter defenses that might force more attempts.