Josh Hart has emerged as a steals prop goldmine, hitting the over in 8 of his last 10 games with an average of 1.3 steals versus a 0.9 line. This 80% over rate with a +0.4 differential represents exceptional value, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to his defensive intensity.
Expert Analysis
Hart's steals surge reflects his expanded role in New York's defensive scheme, where his versatility allows him to guard multiple positions and generate deflections. The 1.3 average against a 0.9 line indicates books are slow to adjust, creating persistent value. His five-game over streak demonstrates consistency rather than random variance, as Hart's high basketball IQ and active hands translate to reliable steal production. The Knicks' defensive identity under Tom Thibodeau emphasizes pressure and disruption, perfectly suiting Hart's skill set. His ability to read passing lanes while maintaining positional discipline has made him a consistent threat for multiple steals per game. The 52.7% ROI on overs validates this isn't just a hot streak but a sustainable edge. However, the small sample size and potential for defensive adjustments by opponents present regression risks. Hart's steal production could normalize if teams begin targeting him less frequently or if his minutes fluctuate. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but the overall trend strength suggests market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit while it persists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Hart's 80% over rate and +0.4 differential indicate the market hasn't caught up to his defensive impact. The five-game over streak shows consistency beyond variance. Target this prop when Hart faces teams with higher turnover rates or in faster-paced games where more possessions create additional steal opportunities. Main risk is sample size regression and potential line adjustment.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Hart's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Hart has hit the steals over in 8 of his last 10 games (80% rate) with a 2-0 under record. This exceptional over performance includes a current five-game over streak, demonstrating remarkable consistency in defensive production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Hart Steals last 10 games?
Bet the over on Hart's steals props. His 1.3 average versus 0.9 line creates a +0.4 edge with 80% over rate. The market hasn't adjusted to his defensive role expansion, creating exploitable value.
What's Josh Hart's average Steals last 10 games?
Hart is averaging 1.3 steals over his last 10 games compared to his typical 0.9 line. This +0.4 differential represents significant value, as he's consistently exceeding expectations by nearly half a steal per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hart steals overs in faster-paced games or against turnover-prone teams where additional possessions increase steal opportunities. His defensive versatility makes him effective across various matchups, but pace advantages amplify his steal production potential.