Josh Hart's blocks prop presents a compelling under opportunity at home, hitting just 31.2% of overs across 16 games with a -0.1 average differential below the 0.5 line. The 5-11-0 record and +31.2% under ROI reflect his limited rim protection role in New York's system.
Expert Analysis
Hart's struggles with blocks at Madison Square Garden stem from his positional usage in Tom Thibodeau's defensive scheme. At 6'5", Hart operates primarily as a perimeter defender and rebounding guard, rarely venturing into shot-blocking territory that would generate consistent block production. The Knicks deploy Hart to guard wings and handle switching responsibilities, keeping him away from the paint where blocks naturally occur. His 0.38 average significantly trails the standard 0.5 line, indicating consistent market mispricing. The 31.2% over rate across 16 home games isn't a small sample fluke—it reflects Hart's fundamental role limitations. New York's defensive identity relies on Hart's versatility and rebounding rather than rim protection, with Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein handling interior defense. Hart's recent four-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of failing to reach the blocks threshold. The -40.3% over ROI demonstrates how consistently betting overs has burned money, while the under side has generated positive returns. Hart's skill set simply doesn't translate to reliable block production, particularly in home games where his defensive assignments remain consistent within Thibodeau's structured system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hart's 0.38 home average and 31.2% over rate create a sustainable edge against the 0.5 line. His perimeter-focused defensive role limits block opportunities, making unders the logical play when the line stays at 0.5. Risk emerges if the line drops to 0.5 with heavy juice or if Hart faces unusually aggressive offensive teams.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Hart's Blocks prop record home games?
Hart's blocks prop record in home games stands at 5-11-0 over/under with a 31.2% over rate. He averages 0.38 blocks per game at Madison Square Garden, falling 0.1 blocks short of the typical 0.5 line across 16 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Hart Blocks home games?
Bet under on Hart's blocks at home games. His 31.2% over rate and 0.38 average create a clear edge against the 0.5 line, generating +31.2% ROI on under bets while overs have lost -40.3%.
What's Josh Hart's average Blocks home games?
Hart averages 0.38 blocks in home games, which falls 0.1 blocks below the standard 0.5 line. This consistent shortfall across 16 games reflects his perimeter-focused defensive role rather than rim protection duties.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hart's blocks unders when the line stays at 0.5 in home games. His perimeter defensive assignments and 31.2% over rate create the best betting conditions, particularly during his current four-game under streak pattern.