Josh Hart's assists props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30.0% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.4 average differential below the line. The Knicks guard is averaging 4.3 assists against a 5.7 line, creating consistent value on the under with +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Hart's assist struggles reflect New York's evolving offensive hierarchy and his shifting role within the system. The 4.3 average against a 5.7 line represents a significant market overcorrection, likely based on his earlier season playmaking when the Knicks had different personnel availability. His current three-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather the continuation of a systematic trend where Hart operates more as a complementary piece than primary facilitator. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't adjusted to Hart's reduced ball-handling responsibilities. With Jalen Brunson commanding primary creation duties and the Knicks' improved depth limiting Hart's need to initiate offense, the assist opportunities have naturally decreased. The consistency of this trend—hitting unders in 7 of 10 games—suggests this isn't random variance but a fundamental shift in Hart's role that oddsmakers haven't fully recognized. The 30.0% over rate indicates books are still pricing Hart based on outdated usage patterns, creating a persistent edge for sharp bettors willing to fade the inflated lines.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hart's systematic role reduction as a primary facilitator has created a clear market inefficiency, with the 4.3 average sitting 1.4 assists below the typical 5.7 line. Target unders when the line sits at 5.5 or higher, particularly in games where Brunson and the primary ball-handlers are healthy. The main risk is a blowout scenario forcing increased Hart usage, but the trend's consistency suggests sustainable value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 1.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Hart's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Hart has gone 3-7-0 over/under on his assists props in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% overs. He's averaging 4.3 assists against typical lines around 5.7, creating a significant -1.4 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Hart Assists last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Hart's 4.3 average sits well below the typical 5.7 line, and the 7-of-10 under rate with +33.6% ROI represents clear value. Target unders when lines are 5.5 or higher for maximum edge.
What's Josh Hart's average Assists last 10 games?
Hart is averaging 4.3 assists over his last 10 games, which sits 1.4 assists below the typical 5.7 line set by sportsbooks. This significant gap represents the market's failure to adjust to his reduced playmaking role in New York's current system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hart assists unders when the line is 5.5 or higher, particularly in games where Jalen Brunson and other primary ball-handlers are healthy. Avoid in potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate his usage and assist opportunities.