Josh Hart's assists prop shows a clear over bias with 54.3% of games hitting the over across 35 games. His 5.34 average significantly exceeds the typical 4.93 line, creating a +0.4 differential that generates positive ROI. Despite a recent three-game under streak, the underlying numbers favor LEAN OVER.
Expert Analysis
Hart's assists prop presents an intriguing case study in market inefficiency. His 5.34 average against a 4.93 line represents meaningful value, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his expanded playmaking role in New York's system. The 54.3% over rate translates to a +3.6% ROI on over bets, while under bettors face a brutal -12.7% return. This isn't just variance—Hart's role as a secondary facilitator alongside Jalen Brunson has created consistent assist opportunities that the market undervalues. The current three-game under streak appears to be natural regression rather than a fundamental shift, especially given his season-long average remains well above typical lines. Hart's versatility allows him to accumulate assists through various mechanisms: transition opportunities, secondary breaks, and even post-ups that create kick-out opportunities. The key concern is whether this 0.4 edge represents sustainable value or if the market will eventually adjust lines upward. However, with 35 games of data showing consistent outperformance, Hart's assists prop remains one of the more reliable over plays in the NBA landscape.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Hart's 5.34 average creates genuine value against the typical 4.93 line, supported by his expanded playmaking role in New York's system. The +3.6% ROI on overs demonstrates market inefficiency that persists across 35 games. While the recent three-game under streak creates pause, it appears to be natural variance rather than a role change. Target this prop when the line sits at 4.5 or 5.5, avoiding inflated numbers above 5.5.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 6.5 | 1.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Hart's Assists prop record all games?
Hart's assists prop record stands at 19-16-0 over/under across 35 games, hitting the over 54.3% of the time. This represents a solid edge for over bettors, with his performance consistently exceeding market expectations throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Hart Assists all games?
Bet the OVER on Hart's assists props. His 5.34 average significantly exceeds the typical 4.93 line, creating a +0.4 differential that generates positive ROI. The recent under streak appears to be variance rather than a fundamental shift in his role.
What's Josh Hart's average Assists all games?
Hart averages 5.34 assists per game, which sits 0.4 above the typical line of 4.93. This meaningful differential has created consistent value for over bettors, with his expanded playmaking role in New York's system driving the outperformance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hart's assists overs when the line sits at 4.5 or 5.5, avoiding inflated numbers above his season average. Look for games where the Knicks face pace-up spots or when Brunson's availability creates additional playmaking responsibilities for Hart.