Jonas Valančiūnas has been a consistent steals under performer, hitting the over in just 31.6% of games with a -0.2 average differential against the 0.5 line. The under has delivered a solid 30.6% ROI across 19 games, making it the clear preferred side.
Expert Analysis
Valančiūnas's steals struggles reflect the fundamental reality of his role and skill set. As a traditional center averaging just 0.32 steals per game against a 0.5 line, he's operating well below the threshold needed for consistent overs. The 6-13 record isn't a statistical fluke—it's a reflection of his defensive positioning and responsibilities. Centers typically generate steals through help defense and passing lane disruptions, but Valančiūnas spends most possessions anchored near the rim, limiting his steal opportunities. His longest under streak of 8 games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while his longest over streak maxed at just 2 games. The -39.7% ROI on overs tells the complete story of a prop that's consistently overvalued by the market. Sacramento's pace and defensive scheme further limit his steal potential, as the Kings often rely on perimeter defenders to generate turnovers while Valančiūnas focuses on rim protection and rebounding. This isn't a temporary slump or matchup-dependent issue—it's a structural limitation that makes the under a reliable play.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Valančiūnas's 0.32 average creates a significant cushion below the 0.5 line, and his role as a rim-protecting center naturally limits steal opportunities. The 30.6% ROI on unders across 19 games demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Target this prop consistently, especially when the line stays at 0.5, as his defensive positioning and responsibilities make steals an inconsistent part of his statistical profile.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonas Valančiūnas's Steals prop record all games?
Valančiūnas has gone over his steals prop in just 6 of 19 games (31.6%) this season, with 13 unders creating a clear pattern of underperformance against the standard 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonas Valančiūnas Steals all games?
Bet the under consistently. His 0.32 average is well below the 0.5 line, and the under has generated a 30.6% ROI while overs have lost nearly 40% of their value.
What's Jonas Valančiūnas's average Steals all games?
Valančiūnas averages 0.32 steals per game, which is 0.18 below the typical 0.5 betting line. This significant gap creates a natural edge for under bettors in most matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target the under when the line is set at 0.5, which is standard for most centers. His rim-protecting role and limited perimeter involvement make steals consistently difficult to achieve.