Joel Embiid's three-point prop shows clear under value with just 41.7% overs across 36 games. The center averages 1.33 makes against a typical 1.28 line, but the under delivers +11.4% ROI while overs lose 20.4%. This is a consistent fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Embiid's three-point struggles reflect the fundamental challenge of betting overs on a center's perimeter shooting. Despite averaging slightly above the typical line at 1.33 makes per game, the 58.3% under rate reveals the prop's inherent volatility working against over bettors. Centers like Embiid face inconsistent three-point opportunities depending on game flow, defensive schemes, and Philadelphia's offensive priorities. When the 76ers need interior scoring or face teams that pack the paint, Embiid's three-point attempts naturally decrease. The -20.4% ROI on overs demonstrates how sportsbooks effectively price this prop, accounting for the occasional explosion games while capitalizing on the frequent single-make or zero-make performances. The eight-game under streak in his sample highlights how quickly these props can turn cold, even for capable shooters. Embiid's three-point shooting remains secondary to his dominant interior game, making the under the mathematically superior long-term play. The modest 0.1 average differential above the line creates a false sense of over value, but the actual results show books price this efficiently.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% under rate and +11.4% ROI on unders creates sustainable value against a prop that appears closer than it actually plays. Target this bet when Embiid faces strong interior defenses that might theoretically push him outside, as these scenarios often result in fewer overall shot attempts rather than increased three-point volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joel Embiid's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Embiid's three-point prop record shows 15 overs and 21 unders across 36 games, hitting under 58.3% of the time. The under delivers +11.4% ROI while overs lose 20.4%, making this a clear under-leaning prop despite his shooting ability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joel Embiid 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Embiid's three-point props. The 58.3% under rate and positive ROI create consistent value, as his interior-focused role limits reliable perimeter volume despite occasional hot shooting nights that inflate his season average.
What's Joel Embiid's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Embiid averages 1.33 three-pointers made per game against a typical 1.28 line, creating a modest +0.1 differential. However, this slight edge above the line masks the actual under performance that occurs in 58.3% of games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Embiid three-point unders when facing strong interior defenses or in potential blowout scenarios. These situations often reduce his overall shot attempts rather than increasing perimeter volume, favoring the under despite apparent logic suggesting more outside shooting.