Jimmy Butler shows a clear edge on three-pointers made props with one day of rest, posting a 21-13 over record (61.8%) with a +0.32 average differential above the typical 0.65 line. This 34-game sample from the 2023-24 season presents a compelling over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Butler's elevated three-point production on one day of rest reflects both physical and tactical factors that create sustained betting value. The veteran forward averages 0.97 made threes in these spots compared to his typical 0.65 line, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue his perimeter aggression when properly rested. This isn't random variance—Butler's role in Miami's offense shifts subtly with adequate recovery time, as he becomes more willing to spot up from deep rather than exclusively attacking the rim. The 61.8% over rate across 34 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, with his longest over streak reaching 10 games compared to just 6 consecutive unders. The +17.9% ROI on overs validates this as a profitable long-term angle, while the -27.0% under ROI shows the market's persistent mispricing. Butler's three-point attempts tend to increase when he's not grinding through back-to-back fatigue, and Miami's spacing-dependent offense benefits from his willingness to stretch the floor. The sample size provides confidence this isn't a small-sample fluke, and the consistency of the edge suggests fundamental factors rather than random clustering.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Butler's 61.8% over rate with one day rest represents a clear market inefficiency, as books consistently set his three-point line too low in these recovery spots. The +0.32 average differential above the typical 0.65 line shows meaningful value. Main risk is his current one-game under streak potentially extending, but the 10-game over streak history suggests positive regression is likely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Jimmy Butler III props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jimmy Butler III's 3-Pointers Made prop record 1 day rest?
Butler's three-pointers made prop with one day rest shows a 21-13 over record (61.8%) across 34 games in the 2023-24 season, with an average of 0.97 made threes compared to the typical 0.65 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jimmy Butler III 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Bet the over on Butler's three-pointers made with one day rest. The 61.8% over rate and +0.32 differential above the line represents clear value, though current one-game under streak requires monitoring.
What's Jimmy Butler III's average 3-Pointers Made 1 day rest?
Butler averages 0.97 three-pointers made with one day of rest, which is 0.32 above his typical 0.65 line. This consistent differential creates betting value as books underestimate his perimeter production when rested.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Butler's three-point props specifically when Miami has one day of rest. His 61.8% over rate in these spots shows the market consistently undervalues his willingness to shoot from deep when properly recovered.