Jimmy Butler has been a three-point revelation over his last 10 games, hitting the over at an 80% clip (8-2-0 record) while averaging 1.0 makes against a 0.5 line. This represents a dramatic shift from his career-long reluctance to fire from deep, creating exceptional betting value.
Expert Analysis
Butler's recent three-point surge represents one of the most dramatic stylistic shifts we've seen from a veteran star. Averaging 1.0 makes per game against a 0.5 line creates an immediate mathematical edge, but the underlying factors suggest this isn't random variance. Miami's playoff positioning battles have forced Butler into expanded offensive responsibility, particularly with key shooters like Tyler Herro managing injuries throughout this stretch. The Heat's pace increase during this period has created more possessions, while opposing defenses have begun sagging off Butler to help on Miami's primary scorers. Most tellingly, Butler's shot selection has evolved—he's taking more corner threes and catch-and-shoot opportunities rather than contested pull-ups. The 52.7% ROI over this sample reflects genuine market inefficiency, as books have been slow to adjust lines for a player historically averse to three-point volume. However, regression risks are real. Butler's career three-point rate suggests this pace is unsustainable long-term, and Miami's recent injury returns could reduce his usage. The sample size, while profitable, remains small enough that a few cold games could quickly erode the edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Butler's expanded three-point role appears sustainable in the short term, driven by Miami's tactical needs rather than hot shooting. The 0.5 line provides excellent cushion—he needs just one make to cash. However, regression concerns and the small sample prevent higher conviction. Target games where Miami faces pace-up opponents or when Butler's usage projects to remain elevated.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Jimmy Butler III props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jimmy Butler III's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Butler has gone over his Three Pointers Made prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80% over rate) with a 2-0 push record. He's averaging 1.0 makes per game against the typical 0.5 line, delivering a +52.7% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jimmy Butler III 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Lean over on Butler's Three Pointers Made props. His 80% over rate and 1.0 average against a 0.5 line create clear mathematical value. The trend appears tactically driven by Miami's needs rather than unsustainable hot shooting.
What's Jimmy Butler III's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Butler is averaging 1.0 Three Pointers Made over his last 10 games compared to the standard 0.5 line. This +0.5 differential represents a significant edge, as he only needs one make to cover the over consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Butler three-point props when Miami faces pace-up opponents or when key shooters are unavailable. His expanded role appears most pronounced in high-usage situations where the Heat need additional offensive creation from their veteran star.