Jimmy Butler's assists prop on one day rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.0% overs across 35 games with a -0.2 differential to the typical 5.1 line. The 14-21 under record generates +14.6% ROI, making this a reliable fade spot for Butler's playmaking numbers.
Expert Analysis
Butler's assist production consistently falls short of expectations when operating on standard rest, and the underlying factors suggest this isn't random variance. The veteran forward's role in Miami's offense becomes more score-first oriented when he's physically fresh, as Erik Spoelstra often tasks Butler with aggressive attacking rather than pure facilitation. Butler's 4.86 average on one day rest reflects a player who prioritizes getting his own shot and drawing fouls over setting up teammates when his legs are under him. The Heat's pace and offensive structure also contribute to this trend, as they tend to play more methodically with Butler handling primary scoring duties rather than running through multiple ball handlers. The six-game under streak earlier in the sample demonstrates how persistent this pattern can be, while even the longest over streak maxed at just three games. Butler's natural scoring instincts take precedence over playmaking when he's not managing fatigue, and Miami's system supports this approach. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Butler's rest-dependent role changes, creating consistent value on the under side.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Butler's 40.0% over rate on one day rest reflects a systematic shift toward scoring over facilitating when fresh. The -0.2 differential to market lines creates modest but consistent value, especially given the +14.6% under ROI. Primary risk comes from potential blowout games where Butler racks up garbage-time assists, but Miami's competitive nature limits this exposure.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jimmy Butler III's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Butler's assists prop goes 14-21 over/under on one day rest across 35 games, hitting just 40.0% overs. His 4.86 average consistently falls short of the typical 5.1 line by 0.2 assists per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jimmy Butler III Assists 1 day rest?
Lean under on Butler's assists when he has one day rest. The 40.0% over rate and +14.6% under ROI create consistent value, as fresh Butler focuses more on scoring than facilitating in Miami's system.
What's Jimmy Butler III's average Assists 1 day rest?
Butler averages 4.86 assists on one day rest, running 0.2 assists below the typical 5.1 line. This differential reflects his shift toward scoring-first mentality when physically fresh rather than managing fatigue through playmaking.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Butler's assists unders specifically on one day rest when he's fresh and likely to prioritize scoring. Avoid back-to-back situations where fatigue forces more facilitation and conservative offensive approaches from the veteran forward.