Jeremy Sochan's three-point props at home present a slight edge toward unders, with the market hitting just 47.8% overs across 23 games. His 0.7 home average barely exceeds typical 0.5 lines, but the -0.4% under ROI suggests minimal value. The current three-game under streak aligns with his inconsistent shooting profile.
Expert Analysis
Sochan's home three-point production reveals a player whose role evolution hasn't translated to consistent perimeter success. The 0.7 average against likely 0.5 lines creates a deceptive edge, as his 47.8% over rate indicates the market may be undervaluing his inconsistency rather than his ceiling. The forward's shooting mechanics remain a work in progress, and his primary value comes through playmaking and defense rather than floor spacing. Home court advantage typically boosts shooting percentages, yet Sochan's modest differential suggests his three-point attempts are more situational than systematic. The equal three-game streaks in both directions highlight his volatility, where game script and matchup dictate attempts more than consistent offensive sets. His current under streak likely reflects recent defensive adjustments by opponents who've recognized his limitations beyond the arc. The minimal ROI on both sides indicates sharp line-setting, but the slight under edge persists because books may overcompensate for his improved overall play. Sochan's three-point props depend heavily on game flow, with blowouts potentially inflating garbage-time attempts while competitive games limit his perimeter opportunities as he focuses on facilitating.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Sochan's 47.8% over rate and current three-game under streak suggest the market slightly overvalues his home three-point consistency. Target games where San Antonio faces strong perimeter defenses that will challenge his shot selection, or when the Spurs are expected to control pace and limit his need for volume shooting. The primary risk lies in garbage-time situations where increased attempts could inflate his numbers regardless of shooting efficiency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Sochan's home three-point props show an 11-12 over/under record (47.8% overs) across 23 games from October 2023 to March 2024, with a -8.7% ROI on overs and -0.4% on unders, indicating slight under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean under on Sochan's home three-point props. His 47.8% over rate and current three-game under streak suggest the market overvalues his consistency. Target games against strong perimeter defenses or when pace favors his playmaking role.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Sochan averages 0.7 three-pointers made in home games, which sits 0.1 above the typical 0.59 line. This modest differential reflects his inconsistent shooting despite the slight mathematical edge over standard props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sochan three-point unders when San Antonio faces elite perimeter defenses or in games with slower projected pace. Avoid betting during potential blowouts where garbage-time attempts could inflate his numbers regardless of shooting efficiency.