Jeremy Sochan's three-pointers made prop shows a clear under bias with just 47.1% overs across 51 games. His 0.76 average beats the typical 0.58 line, but the -10.2% ROI on overs reveals consistent market overvaluation. The under presents modest value.
Expert Analysis
Jeremy Sochan's three-point prop represents a classic case of market inefficiency driven by perception versus reality. While his 0.76 average suggests he's exceeding the standard 0.58 line, the 47.1% over rate tells the real story - books are consistently setting lines that account for his occasional hot shooting nights while ignoring his fundamental limitations as a perimeter shooter. The -10.2% ROI on overs indicates systematic overvaluation, likely influenced by his improving confidence and increased attempts as a sophomore. However, Sochan remains primarily a defensive specialist and interior player for San Antonio, with three-point shooting representing an inconsistent secondary skill rather than a reliable offensive weapon. His current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of regression after brief hot stretches. The key insight here is that Sochan's three-point production is highly volatile - he'll occasionally connect on multiple attempts in games where the Spurs are trailing and need perimeter scoring, but these performances are outliers rather than indicators of sustainable improvement. The market appears to be pricing in his upside potential rather than his median performance, creating consistent value on the under. This trend should persist as long as books continue factoring his ceiling games into line-setting while his role remains primarily focused on defense and interior play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 47.1% over rate and negative ROI on overs indicate systematic market overvaluation of Sochan's three-point consistency. While his average exceeds typical lines, the volatility creates more profitable under opportunities than the raw numbers suggest. Target unders when lines reach 0.5 or higher, especially in games where San Antonio projects to control pace and limit transition opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Sochan's three-pointers made prop shows a 24-27 over/under record (47.1% overs) across 51 games. He's averaging 0.76 makes against typical lines around 0.58, but unders have been more profitable with +1.1% ROI versus -10.2% on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean under on Sochan's three-pointers made props. The 47.1% over rate and negative ROI on overs indicate the market consistently overvalues his perimeter consistency. His role as a defensive specialist limits reliable three-point volume despite occasional hot streaks.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Sochan averages 0.76 three-pointers made per game, which exceeds the typical 0.58 line by 0.18 makes. However, this positive differential is misleading due to high volatility - his occasional multi-make games inflate the average while unders hit 52.9% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sochan three-point unders when lines reach 0.5 or higher, especially in slower-paced games where San Antonio controls tempo. His current three-game under streak and defensive-focused role make regression from hot shooting more likely than sustained improvement.