Jeremy Sochan's steals prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over rate across his last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. The Spurs forward is averaging 0.6 steals against a 0.5 line, creating consistent under value despite the modest +0.1 differential. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Jeremy Sochan's defensive counting stats reveal a player whose steal production has become surprisingly predictable in its underwhelming nature. The 30% over rate tells a story of a young forward whose defensive impact doesn't translate to the flashy steal numbers bettors often expect from active defenders. Sochan's 0.6 average against the 0.5 line appears close, but the consistency of his under performance suggests this isn't random variance. The Spurs' defensive system under Gregg Popovich emphasizes team defense over individual gambling for steals, which explains why Sochan's steal numbers remain suppressed despite his active hands and defensive motor. His role as a help defender and rebounder means he's often positioned away from passing lanes where steals typically occur. The current two-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, and with San Antonio's pace ranking in the bottom third of the league, fewer possessions naturally limit steal opportunities. The massive -42.7% ROI on overs indicates the market has been slow to adjust to Sochan's actual steal production, creating sustained value on the under. His defensive contributions come through deflections, charges, and help defense rather than the steal column, making this prop particularly exploitable.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Sochan's 30% over rate and devastating -42.7% ROI on overs creates clear value on the under side. The Spurs' defensive system and slower pace naturally suppress steal opportunities, while his role as a help defender keeps him away from passing lanes. Main risk is a pace-up game or garbage time situation creating extra possessions, but the underlying factors strongly favor the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Jeremy Sochan has gone over his steals prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30% rate) with a 3-7-0 record. Over bettors have lost money at a devastating -42.7% ROI rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Steals last 10 games?
Bet under on Jeremy Sochan steals props. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders shows clear market inefficiency, while his defensive role limits steal opportunities consistently.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Steals last 10 games?
Sochan averages 0.6 steals over his last 10 games against a typical 0.5 line. Despite the slight positive differential, he's hit over just 30% of the time, creating under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sochan steals unders in slower-paced games against methodical offenses. Avoid when San Antonio faces high-turnover teams or in potential blowout situations with extended garbage time.