Jeremy Sochan's assists props at home present a compelling over opportunity, hitting 58.3% of the time with a +11.4% ROI across 24 games. His 3.58 average consistently beats the typical 3.46 line by 0.12 assists per game. Despite a current two-game under streak, the underlying home court advantage makes overs the preferred play.
Expert Analysis
Sochan's home assists edge stems from San Antonio's more fluid offensive system at the Alamodome, where the young forward operates with greater confidence and court vision. His 3.58 home average reflects improved decision-making in familiar surroundings, particularly when the Spurs push pace and create transition opportunities. The 58.3% over rate isn't inflated by outliers—it represents consistent production above market expectations. While books have adjusted lines upward throughout the season, Sochan's home assists haven't regressed proportionally. The current two-game under streak actually creates value, as regression typically favors the stronger trend direction. His role as a secondary playmaker becomes more pronounced at home, where he's comfortable making the extra pass rather than forcing shots. The +11.4% ROI demonstrates sustainable edge, not variance. Risk factors include potential blowouts where fourth-quarter minutes disappear and matchups against elite defensive teams that limit overall ball movement. However, Sochan's assists don't rely heavily on individual matchups—they're more about team flow and his comfort level orchestrating offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Sochan's home assists advantage is real and profitable, backed by solid volume and consistent outperformance of market lines. The current under streak creates enhanced value on a prop that hits 58.3% of the time. Target games where San Antonio projects for competitive flow rather than blowout scenarios. Main risk is the Spurs' youth leading to inconsistent offensive execution, but home court mitigates this concern significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Sochan's Assists prop record home games?
Sochan's assists prop record in home games is 14-10-0 over/under, hitting the over 58.3% of the time. This strong over rate is backed by a +11.4% ROI, demonstrating consistent profitability across 24 home games tracked.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Sochan Assists home games?
Bet the over on Sochan's assists props at home games. The 58.3% hit rate and +11.4% ROI provide clear mathematical edge, especially with his 3.58 average consistently beating typical 3.46 lines by meaningful margins.
What's Jeremy Sochan's average Assists home games?
Sochan averages 3.58 assists per game at home, which is 0.12 assists above the typical 3.46 line. This consistent outperformance drives the profitable over trend and represents genuine home court advantage in his playmaking.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sochan assists overs in competitive home games where San Antonio projects for normal rotation minutes. Avoid potential blowouts and focus on matchups where the Spurs' pace-and-space system can operate effectively throughout four quarters.