Jerami Grant's three-pointers made prop shows exceptional over value at home, hitting 61.5% of the time with a 16-10 record. His 2.5 average significantly exceeds the typical 1.88 line, creating a +0.6 differential that translates to +17.5% ROI. Strong lean over in home spots.
Expert Analysis
Grant's home three-point production represents one of the more reliable prop edges in the market, driven by several converging factors. The veteran forward has transformed into Portland's primary floor-spacing option, and the comfort of home clearly elevates his shooting confidence. His 2.5 home average against a 1.88 line creates substantial value that the market consistently underprices. The Trail Blazers' pace-heavy system generates more possessions, naturally inflating attempt volume for their primary perimeter threats. Grant's role as a secondary scorer means he often benefits from defensive attention focused on Portland's primary options, creating cleaner looks from beyond the arc. The 61.5% over rate across 26 games provides robust sample size validation, while the +17.5% ROI demonstrates sustainable profitability. Portland's home court advantage appears particularly pronounced for Grant's shooting, possibly due to familiar sight lines and crowd energy that boost confidence on catch-and-shoot opportunities. The current three-game over streak aligns with historical patterns rather than suggesting imminent regression. Grant's veteran experience and consistent role allocation minimize the volatility concerns that plague younger players in similar spots.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Grant's home three-point production consistently exceeds market expectations, with the 2.5 average creating clear value against standard lines. The 61.5% over rate and positive ROI indicate sustainable edge rather than variance-driven results. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or blowout scenarios limiting fourth-quarter attempts, but Grant's veteran consistency and Portland's competitive games minimize these concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerami Grant's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Grant's three-pointers made prop at home shows a 16-10 record, hitting over 61.5% of the time across 26 games. This translates to profitable +17.5% ROI on over bets while under bets lose -26.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerami Grant 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet over on Grant's three-pointers made at home. His 2.5 average significantly exceeds typical 1.88 lines, creating consistent value with 61.5% over rate and proven profitability over substantial sample size.
What's Jerami Grant's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Grant averages 2.5 three-pointers made in home games, which is 0.6 shots above the standard 1.88 line. This differential represents significant value that the market consistently underprices in Portland home spots.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Grant's three-point props specifically in home games where his production peaks. Avoid road spots or potential blowouts where fourth-quarter minutes might be limited, reducing total attempt opportunities.