Jerami Grant has quietly become a steals prop goldmine, hitting the over in 60% of his last 10 games with a +0.4 average differential versus the typical 0.6 line. The 14.6% ROI on overs signals genuine value in a market that hasn't adjusted to Grant's increased defensive activity in Portland's system.
Expert Analysis
Grant's steal production surge stems from Portland's defensive scheme placing him in more help positions where he can jump passing lanes. At 6'8" with excellent lateral movement, Grant has always possessed the tools, but his role evolution from primary scorer to complementary defender has unlocked this skill set. The Trail Blazers' pace-heavy style creates more possessions and transition opportunities where Grant thrives as a disruptor. His 1.0 average significantly outpaces the standard 0.6 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't caught up to this trend. The consistency is notable—no major hot streaks inflating the numbers, just steady production above expectations. However, the sample size remains relatively small at 10 games, and Grant's primary focus on offense could limit his defensive aggression in high-scoring affairs. Additionally, foul trouble has occasionally forced him into more conservative defensive positioning. The lack of split data makes it difficult to identify optimal spots, but the overall trend shows genuine skill development rather than statistical noise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Grant's defensive evolution in Portland's system appears sustainable, with the 1.0 average creating clear value against 0.6 lines. Target games where Portland faces up-tempo opponents or teams prone to turnovers, as these create the most steal opportunities. The main risk is regression to his career norms, but the underlying role change suggests this production level has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerami Grant's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Grant has hit the steals over in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) with a 6-4-0 over/under record. He's averaging 1.0 steals compared to the typical 0.6 line, creating consistent value for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerami Grant Steals last 10 games?
Lean over on Grant's steals props. His 1.0 average significantly exceeds standard 0.6 lines, and Portland's defensive system has unlocked his disruptive potential. The 14.6% ROI on overs shows genuine market inefficiency worth targeting.
What's Jerami Grant's average Steals last 10 games?
Grant is averaging 1.0 steals over his last 10 games, which is 0.4 above the typical 0.6 line. This represents a 67% increase over market expectations and creates consistent value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Grant steals overs against up-tempo teams or turnover-prone opponents where more possessions create additional steal opportunities. Avoid when he's in foul trouble early or facing methodical, low-turnover offenses that limit disruption chances.