Jerami Grant's steals prop at home presents a modest edge toward the over, hitting 54.5% of the time with a +0.4 differential above the typical 0.5 line. While the sample shows positive over ROI at +4.1%, the edge is marginal and requires selective timing.
Expert Analysis
Grant's home steal production reflects his role as Portland's primary wing defender, where familiar surroundings and crowd energy often translate to more aggressive defensive positioning. The 0.91 average against a 0.5 line creates consistent value, though the modest 54.5% hit rate suggests this isn't a dominant trend. The +4.1% over ROI indicates profitability despite the relatively close split, while the -13.2% under ROI shows the market may be undervaluing his defensive activity at home. Grant's steal production typically correlates with Portland's pace and opponent turnover tendencies, making matchup analysis crucial. The Trail Blazers' home court advantage in defensive intensity often manifests in Grant's peripheral stats more than raw scoring numbers. However, the limited sample size and lack of recent form data introduces uncertainty. Grant's defensive engagement can fluctuate based on foul trouble and offensive workload, creating variance in his steal opportunities. The fact that both his longest over and under streaks are just two games suggests inconsistency rather than sustained trends, making this prop better suited for selective betting rather than systematic backing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Grant's home defensive activity creates a legitimate edge against the 0.5 steals line, supported by the positive differential and over ROI. Target games against turnover-prone opponents or when Portland needs defensive intensity. Main risk is Grant's inconsistent defensive engagement and the relatively small sample size limiting confidence in the trend's sustainability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerami Grant's Steals prop record home games?
Grant's steals prop at home shows a 6-5-0 over/under record (54.5% overs) across 11 games from December 2023 to February 2024, with a +4.1% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerami Grant Steals home games?
Lean over on Grant's steals at home, but be selective. The 0.91 average beats the 0.5 line consistently, though the modest edge requires targeting favorable matchups against turnover-prone teams.
What's Jerami Grant's average Steals home games?
Grant averages 0.91 steals in home games, creating a +0.4 differential above the typical 0.5 line. This mathematical edge provides the foundation for the positive over trend.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Grant's steals overs at home against high-turnover opponents or when Portland needs defensive stops. Avoid when he's in foul trouble early or carrying heavy offensive workload.