Jerami Grant's steals prop presents a compelling over opportunity with a 56.0% hit rate (14-11 record) and a substantial +0.42 average differential above the 0.5 line. His 0.96 steals per game average significantly outpaces expectations, creating consistent value on the over.
Expert Analysis
Grant's steal production stems from Portland's aggressive defensive scheme that emphasizes disrupting passing lanes, particularly effective given his 6'8" frame and active hands. His positioning as a versatile defender allows him to guard multiple positions and capitalize on cross-court passes that shorter players can't intercept. The +0.42 differential indicates books are consistently undervaluing his defensive impact, likely focusing more on his offensive role than his two-way contributions. Grant's steal rate has maintained consistency throughout his career, suggesting this isn't a hot streak but rather a sustainable skill set. Portland's pace of play creates additional possessions, naturally increasing steal opportunities. The 6.9% ROI on overs demonstrates real betting value, while the -16.0% under ROI confirms the market inefficiency. Grant's defensive instincts and Portland's system create a perfect storm for exceeding the modest 0.5 steal line. The lack of significant regression over 25 games suggests this trend has staying power, making it a reliable betting angle when the line remains depressed.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Grant's 0.96 average against a 0.5 line creates substantial cushion, and Portland's defensive system maximizes his steal opportunities. The 56% hit rate with positive ROI indicates sustainable value. Main risk is potential line adjustment as books catch up to his production, but current pricing offers clear edge for disciplined bettors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerami Grant's Steals prop record all games?
Grant's steals prop shows a 14-11 over record (56.0% hit rate) across 25 games from October 2023 to March 2024. He's averaging 0.96 steals per game against a typical 0.5 line, creating a +0.42 differential that consistently favors over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerami Grant Steals all games?
Lean over on Grant's steals props. His 0.96 average significantly exceeds the 0.5 line, backed by a 56% hit rate and positive ROI. Portland's defensive system and his versatile positioning create consistent steal opportunities that books appear to undervalue.
What's Jerami Grant's average Steals all games?
Grant averages 0.96 steals per game, substantially higher than the standard 0.5 line. This +0.42 differential represents nearly double the expected production, creating significant value for over bettors when books maintain conservative pricing on his defensive contributions.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Grant's steals overs when the line stays at 0.5, particularly in games where Portland faces teams with high turnover rates. His production remains consistent regardless of matchup, making any game with the standard line a potential value opportunity.