Jerami Grant's away points props present a perfectly balanced market with a 50.0% over rate across 24 games. His 18.08 average sits 1.8 points below typical lines, creating consistent under value despite the even split record. The negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient pricing with slight under edge.
Expert Analysis
Grant's away scoring pattern reveals a player consistently priced above his road production level, averaging 18.08 points against lines typically set around 19.92. This 1.8-point differential represents meaningful value, as oddsmakers appear to price Grant based on his overall scoring ability rather than his specific road struggles. The perfectly even 12-12 over-under record masks the underlying trend—Grant hits his number exactly half the time, but when he misses, he tends to fall short by a larger margin than he exceeds by when going over. Portland's road offensive efficiency likely plays a role, as away games typically feature tougher defensive matchups and less favorable shooting conditions. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates sharp market pricing, but the consistent scoring deficit suggests books haven't fully adjusted to Grant's road-specific performance patterns. With no significant split data to muddy the waters, this represents a clean trend based purely on venue impact. The moderate sample size of 24 games provides sufficient data while remaining recent enough to reflect current team dynamics and Grant's established role in Portland's offense.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Grant's consistent 1.8-point deficit to his typical lines creates exploitable value on road unders, despite the even over-under record. Target this when lines sit at 19+ points, as the gap between his actual road production and market expectations widens. Main risk is variance—Grant can explode for 25+ on any given night, making individual game outcomes unpredictable despite the long-term edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 20.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 15.5 | 5.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 15.5 | 22.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 17.5 | 21.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 22.5 | 5.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 22.5 | 10.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 19.5 | 21.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 19.5 | 18.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 18.5 | 9.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 18.5 | 21.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 18.5 | 27.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 19.5 | 18.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 27.5 | 9.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 21.5 | 13.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerami Grant's Points prop record away games?
Grant's away points props show a 12-12-0 over-under record across 24 games, hitting exactly 50.0% overs. He averages 18.08 points on the road with a -1.8 differential versus typical lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerami Grant Points away games?
Lean under on Grant's away points props. His 18.08 road average consistently falls 1.8 points below market lines, creating value despite the even over-under split record.
What's Jerami Grant's average Points away games?
Grant averages 18.08 points in away games, which sits 1.8 points below his typical line of around 19.92. This consistent deficit represents the key edge in this market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Grant's away points unders when lines are set at 19+ points, maximizing the gap between his road production and market expectations. Avoid when lines drop below 18 points.