Jerami Grant's blocks prop presents a perfectly balanced 13-13 record at 50% over rate, but the 0.65 average against a 0.5 line creates a subtle edge. The -4.5% ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing, making this a marginal lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Grant's blocks production sits in that tricky middle ground where his 0.65 average suggests he should clear 0.5 blocks more often than the 50% rate indicates. The Portland forward's defensive positioning as a help defender creates inconsistent block opportunities - some games he's hunting weakside rotations, others he's focused on perimeter switching. The perfectly split 13-13 record actually masks some underlying value, as Grant's length and athleticism give him ceiling games that push his average above the betting line. His recent transition from primary scorer to complementary role has freed him to be more aggressive defensively, though Portland's improved pace limits total defensive possessions. The lack of extreme streaks (longest runs of 3-4 games) suggests this isn't a matchup-dependent prop but rather reflects Grant's consistent but modest shot-blocking presence. Market efficiency at -4.5% ROI both ways indicates sharp money has balanced this line, but the mathematical edge of averaging 0.65 against 0.5 shouldn't be ignored over larger samples.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.15 average differential above the 0.5 line provides mathematical value despite the balanced record. Grant's athletic profile and help defense role create enough ceiling games to justify the slight over lean, though the efficient market pricing limits upside. Best played selectively rather than as a consistent bet.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerami Grant's Blocks prop record all games?
Grant's blocks prop shows a perfectly balanced 13-13 record across 26 games, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time. This creates an even split that masks the underlying mathematical value in his production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerami Grant Blocks all games?
Lean over on Grant's blocks props. His 0.65 average against the typical 0.5 line creates mathematical value despite the balanced record, though the edge is modest and requires selective timing.
What's Jerami Grant's average Blocks all games?
Grant averages 0.65 blocks per game, which sits 0.15 above the standard 0.5 line. This differential provides the foundation for over value despite his perfectly balanced 13-13 over/under record.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Grant's blocks when Portland faces teams with traditional big men or when he's playing extended minutes. His help defense role creates more opportunities against post-heavy offenses than perimeter-oriented attacks.