Jerami Grant's assists prop presents a compelling home edge, hitting the over at a 66.7% clip across 21 games with a robust +27.3% ROI. The forward averages 3.38 assists at home versus a typical 2.69 line, creating consistent value. This represents a high-conviction over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Grant's assist production receives a significant boost in Portland's home environment, where the veteran forward finds himself more comfortable facilitating within the Trail Blazers' offensive system. The 0.7 assist differential above the betting line isn't marginal—it's substantial for a forward whose primary role isn't playmaking. Home court familiarity allows Grant to better read defensive rotations and find teammates in optimal scoring positions, particularly in transition situations where Portland thrives. The consistency of this trend is noteworthy, with only brief cold streaks interrupting longer hot runs. Grant's current role as a secondary facilitator behind Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson actually works in his favor for assists props, as defenses focus on the primary ball handlers while Grant operates with more space to create. The betting market appears slow to adjust to Grant's elevated home assist production, creating recurring value. While regression remains possible, the sample size of 21 games provides confidence in the trend's legitimacy. The Trail Blazers' up-tempo home style and Grant's veteran court vision combine to create an environment where assist totals consistently exceed expectations.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Grant's 66.7% over rate at home isn't fluky—it's driven by legitimate factors including increased comfort, better pace, and favorable matchup dynamics. The +27.3% ROI demonstrates consistent market inefficiency. Target this prop when Grant is healthy and Portland is playing teams that allow transition opportunities, which amplifies his assist potential in the familiar Moda Center environment.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerami Grant's Assists prop record home games?
Jerami Grant has gone over his assists prop in 14 of 21 home games this season, posting a strong 66.7% over rate. He's averaging 3.38 assists per home game with a +27.3% ROI on overs, making this one of his most reliable props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerami Grant Assists home games?
Bet the over on Jerami Grant's assists in home games. The 66.7% hit rate and +27.3% ROI provide clear value, as Grant consistently exceeds the typical 2.69 line by averaging 3.38 assists at the Moda Center.
What's Jerami Grant's average Assists home games?
Jerami Grant averages 3.38 assists in home games, which is 0.7 assists above the typical betting line of 2.69. This substantial differential has created consistent value for over bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Grant's assists overs in home games when Portland faces teams that allow transition baskets or struggle defending secondary playmakers. His assist production peaks when the Trail Blazers can push pace at the Moda Center.