Jerami Grant's assists prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 30% of the time across 20 games with a -0.6 average differential below the typical 2.7 line. The 33.6% ROI on unders reflects consistent value in a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Grant's reduced playmaking role on the road.
Expert Analysis
Grant's assist struggles away from home stem from Portland's offensive system breaking down on the road, where the Trail Blazers rank among the league's worst in assist rate and ball movement. As primarily a scorer rather than facilitator, Grant sees his playmaking opportunities diminish when Portland faces hostile crowds and tighter defensive schemes. The 2.15 average against a 2.7 line represents a significant 20% gap that books haven't adequately addressed. Road games typically feature more isolation-heavy offense for struggling teams like Portland, limiting Grant's assist chances as he focuses on his primary role as a scorer. The four-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how quickly this trend can snowball when Grant settles into his natural scoring mentality. While regression toward league averages always looms, Grant's career assist numbers have never been impressive, and Portland's road offensive struggles provide structural reasons for this trend to persist. The consistency of this under performance across different opponents and game scripts suggests this isn't random variance but a reflection of Grant's role and Portland's road identity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate combined with Portland's road offensive struggles creates sustainable value, though the sample size requires caution. Target this prop when Grant faces defensively sound teams that limit transition opportunities and force Portland into halfcourt sets. The main risk is positive regression and potential line adjustments, but Grant's natural scoring focus makes unders the preferred side until the market corrects.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 9.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jerami Grant's Assists prop record away games?
Grant's assists prop record in away games is 6-14-0 over/under (30% overs) across 20 games from October 2023 to November 2024. He averages 2.15 assists per road game, falling 0.6 assists short of the typical 2.7 line, creating consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jerami Grant Assists away games?
Bet under on Grant's assists in away games. The 70% under rate and 33.6% ROI demonstrate clear value, driven by Portland's poor road offense and Grant's primary role as scorer rather than facilitator in hostile environments.
What's Jerami Grant's average Assists away games?
Grant averages 2.15 assists in away games, which is 0.6 assists below the typical 2.7 line. This 20% differential represents significant value, as the market hasn't fully adjusted to his reduced playmaking role on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Grant's assists unders when Portland plays defensively sound teams on the road that limit transition opportunities. Avoid when facing poor defensive teams or in potential blowout scenarios where garbage time could inflate assist totals unexpectedly.