Jayson Tatum's steals props have been ice cold, hitting over just 40% of the time across his last 10 games while averaging 0.9 steals against a 1.1 line. With three straight unders and a -0.2 differential, the data strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Jayson Tatum's steal production has been consistently disappointing over his last 10 games, creating a clear pattern that sharp bettors should exploit. Averaging just 0.9 steals against a typical 1.1 line represents a significant 18% shortfall that goes beyond normal variance. The 4-6 over/under record tells only part of the story — the real edge lies in the consistency of this underperformance. Tatum's role as Boston's primary offensive initiator often keeps him focused on facilitating rather than gambling for steals, particularly in games where the Celtics control pace. His defensive positioning as a versatile forward means he's less likely to be in passing lanes compared to guards who naturally generate more steal opportunities. The three-game under streak isn't just recent bad luck — it reflects a sustained pattern where Tatum's steal production has failed to meet market expectations. While regression toward his season mean is always possible, the underlying factors driving this trend appear structural rather than coincidental. The -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders creates a compelling mathematical edge that sophisticated bettors recognize as actionable.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Tatum's consistent underperformance against the steals line over 10 games creates a sustainable edge, particularly given his offensive-focused role limits steal opportunities. Target this prop when Boston faces slower-paced opponents or when Tatum's usage rate is elevated. Main risk is a defensive-minded game script that forces more aggressive positioning.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jayson Tatum's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Tatum has gone 4-6 over/under on steals props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance that creates betting value on the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jayson Tatum Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Tatum's steals props. His 0.9 average against a 1.1 line over 10 games, combined with three straight unders and positive under ROI, creates a clear mathematical edge.
What's Jayson Tatum's average Steals last 10 games?
Tatum is averaging 0.9 steals over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.1 line. This -0.2 differential represents an 18% shortfall that consistently favors under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tatum steals unders when Boston faces slower-paced teams or when he's heavily involved offensively. Avoid when the Celtics are in high-steal game environments or facing turnover-prone opponents.