Jayson Tatum has hit the under on his points total in 60% of his last 10 games, averaging 25.9 points against a 26.8 line. The -0.9 differential suggests books are still pricing him too high, creating consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
Tatum's recent scoring struggles reflect a concerning pattern where oddsmakers haven't adjusted quickly enough to his diminished output. The 25.9 average against a 26.8 line reveals books are still pricing him based on his elite reputation rather than current performance. This 0.9-point gap might seem small, but it's significant in NBA props where margins are razor-thin. The 40% over rate indicates systematic underperformance, not random variance. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the +14.6% ROI on unders, suggesting sharp money has already identified this edge. The two-game over streak might tempt contrarian thinking, but it's likely noise within a larger downward trend. Without specific matchup data, we must rely on the raw numbers, which paint a clear picture of a player whose lines haven't caught up to reality. The longest under streak of three games shows this isn't just a brief cold spell but a sustained pattern. Tatum's usage and efficiency appear to be the driving factors, though the exact mechanisms require deeper investigation. The key question is whether this represents a temporary slump or a more permanent shift in his scoring profile.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate and positive ROI on unders creates a clear edge, but the recent two-game over streak introduces some uncertainty. Target this play when lines remain inflated above 26.5, as books appear slow to adjust to Tatum's current scoring reality.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 25.5 | 29.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-12 | OPP | 27.5 | 33.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 30.5 | 16.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-28 | OPP | 26.5 | 46.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-26 | OPP | 28.5 | 27.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 26.5 | 17.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 25.5 | 22.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-02 | OPP | 25.5 | 35.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-27 | OPP | 25.5 | 19.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 26.5 | 15.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jayson Tatum's Points prop record last 10 games?
Tatum has gone under his points total in 6 of his last 10 games (60% under rate), with an overall record of 4-6-0 against the over/under. His scoring has consistently fallen short of bookmaker expectations during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jayson Tatum Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Tatum's points props. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on unders shows a clear profitable pattern. His 25.9 average against 26.8 lines indicates books are still overvaluing his current scoring output.
What's Jayson Tatum's average Points last 10 games?
Tatum is averaging 25.9 points over his last 10 games, nearly a full point below the typical 26.8 line. This -0.9 differential represents the gap between his current production and market expectations, creating under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tatum under props when lines are set at 26.5 or higher, especially after over performances that might inflate the number. The market appears slow to adjust to his recent scoring decline, creating the best betting opportunities.