Jamal Murray's three-pointers made prop shows marginal over tendencies with a 24-23 record (51.1% overs) across 47 games. His 2.49 average slightly exceeds the typical 2.41 line, creating a modest +0.1 differential. The minimal edge suggests a lean over approach rather than aggressive betting.
Expert Analysis
Murray's three-point prop presents a classic case of market efficiency meeting player consistency. The 51.1% over rate indicates the sportsbooks have accurately priced his three-point output, with his 2.49 average sitting just above the standard 2.41 line. This narrow differential reflects Murray's role as Denver's secondary scorer behind Nikola Jokic, where his three-point attempts fluctuate based on game flow and defensive attention. The negative ROI on both sides (-2.5% over, -6.6% under) confirms the market's sharp pricing. Murray's three-point variance stems from his dual role as a floor general and shooting guard, creating inconsistent volume depending on whether Denver needs his playmaking or scoring. His moderate streak patterns (longest runs of 3) suggest neither explosive shooting sprees nor extended cold stretches, indicating steady but unremarkable three-point consistency. The lack of significant split advantages means his performance remains relatively stable across different contexts, making this prop more about finding slight line value than exploiting situational edges.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The minimal 0.1 differential and 51.1% over rate provide a slight mathematical edge, but the negative ROI warns against aggressive betting. Target games where Murray faces pace-up opponents or when Jokic draws heavy defensive focus, potentially increasing Murray's three-point attempts. The primary risk is Denver's offensive versatility reducing Murray's shooting volume in blowouts or grind-it-out games.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jamal Murray's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Murray's three-pointers made prop has gone over 24 times and under 23 times across 47 games, producing a 51.1% over rate. This near-even split demonstrates how accurately sportsbooks have priced his three-point output throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jamal Murray 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean over on Murray's three-pointers made props, but with minimal confidence. His 2.49 average exceeds the typical 2.41 line by just 0.1, providing a slight mathematical edge that's barely worth pursuing given the negative ROI on both sides.
What's Jamal Murray's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Murray averages 2.49 three-pointers made per game compared to the standard 2.41 line, creating a modest +0.1 differential. This narrow margin reflects his consistent but unspectacular three-point production as Denver's secondary scoring option behind Jokic.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray three-point props when Denver faces high-pace opponents or teams that heavily focus defensive attention on Jokic. Avoid betting during potential blowouts or games where Denver's balanced offense might reduce Murray's shooting volume significantly.