Jamal Murray's blocks prop at home presents a clear under opportunity with just 45.0% overs hitting across 20 games. Murray averages 0.6 blocks versus the typical 0.5 line, but the modest +0.1 edge hasn't translated to profitable over betting with -14.1% ROI. The under side shows positive value at +5.0% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Murray's blocks production at home reflects his role as a scoring-focused point guard rather than a defensive disruptor. The 0.6 average against 0.5 lines creates a deceptive edge that fails to overcome the juice, as evidenced by the negative over ROI. Point guards typically generate blocks through anticipation and steals rather than rim protection, making this prop inherently volatile and line-dependent. The 45.0% over rate suggests books have found the right pricing sweet spot, with Murray's defensive positioning and Denver's team defense limiting his block opportunities at Ball Arena. His recent form shows inconsistency typical of peripheral stats, with the longest under streak reaching four games compared to just three overs. The absence of meaningful splits data indicates this trend holds regardless of opponent or game flow. Murray's primary focus on offensive creation and ball-handling duties naturally limits his defensive impact stats, particularly blocks which require specific positioning and timing. The modest sample size of 20 games provides adequate data for trend identification, though regression toward league averages for guard blocks remains possible. Denver's defensive scheme and Murray's role within it suggest this under-friendly pattern should persist throughout the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 55.0% under rate combined with positive ROI creates a sustainable edge despite Murray's slight average advantage over typical lines. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, as the +0.1 differential isn't enough to overcome the over juice consistently. Primary risk involves variance in small sample defensive stats and potential lineup changes affecting Murray's defensive responsibilities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jamal Murray's Blocks prop record home games?
Murray's blocks prop at home games shows a 9-11-0 over/under record, hitting overs just 45.0% of the time across 20 games from December 2023 to March 2024, indicating consistent under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jamal Murray Blocks home games?
Bet the under on Murray's blocks at home games. The 55.0% under rate and +5.0% ROI provide a clear edge, especially when the line is set at 0.5 blocks.
What's Jamal Murray's average Blocks home games?
Murray averages 0.6 blocks per home game against typical lines of 0.5, creating a +0.1 differential. However, this modest edge hasn't translated to profitable over betting due to juice and variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray's blocks under when the line is 0.5 at home games. His guard position and offensive role create the best conditions for under betting, particularly in Denver's defensive system.