Jalen Williams has hit the over on his three-pointers made prop just 41.7% of the time at home (15-21 record), creating a clear under bias. His 1.47 average barely exceeds the typical 1.39 line, while under bets show positive 11.4% ROI versus -20.4% on overs. Lean under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of inefficiency in Jalen Williams's home three-point prop pricing. Over 36 home games, Williams has consistently disappointed over bettors, hitting just 15 of 36 attempts for a dismal 41.7% rate. This isn't a small sample fluke—it represents nearly a full season's worth of data showing systematic underperformance versus market expectations. The root cause likely stems from Oklahoma City's pace and Williams's role in their offensive hierarchy. At home, the Thunder often build comfortable leads, reducing the need for Williams to force three-point attempts in late-game situations where volume typically spikes. His 1.47 home average suggests he's capable but not consistently exceeding the standard 1.39 line by meaningful margins. The +0.08 differential is razor-thin, yet the market continues pricing him as if he'll clear 1.5+ makes regularly. The 11.4% ROI on under bets versus the brutal -20.4% loss rate on overs tells the complete story. Williams appears to be a rhythm shooter who benefits more from road environments where the Thunder face more competitive games requiring sustained offensive output. At home, game flow and reduced minutes in blowouts limit his three-point ceiling, making the under the mathematically superior long-term play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.3% under rate and positive ROI create a sustainable edge, though the thin average differential prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target games where Oklahoma City is heavily favored at home, as blowout potential reduces Williams's late-game three-point volume. Main risk is a hot shooting stretch that could temporarily inflate his home averages.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Williams's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Williams has gone 15-21 on three-pointers made overs in home games, hitting just 41.7% of his overs. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance over 36 games, with under bets showing an 11.4% ROI compared to -20.4% losses on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Williams 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the under on Williams's three-pointers made at home. The 58.3% under rate and positive ROI create a mathematical edge, especially when Oklahoma City is favored heavily and likely to build early leads that reduce his late-game volume.
What's Jalen Williams's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Williams averages 1.47 three-pointers made in home games compared to the typical 1.39 line. While this shows a slight positive differential of +0.08, it's insufficient to justify the over given his poor 41.7% hit rate on those bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams's three-point unders when Oklahoma City is heavily favored at home. These spots increase blowout potential, reducing his minutes and three-point attempts in competitive late-game situations where volume typically spikes for perimeter players.