Jalen Suggs has hit the over on assists props in 60% of his last 10 games, posting a 6-4 record with a +14.6% ROI on overs. His 4.3 average barely edges the typical 4.2 line, but the consistency suggests value. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Jalen Suggs's 60% over rate on assists props reflects his evolving role as Orlando's secondary playmaker alongside Paolo Banchero. The 4.3 average against a 4.2 line shows minimal statistical edge, but the +14.6% ROI on overs indicates market inefficiency in pricing his distributing ability. Suggs has strung together stretches of 4+ assists in 6 of 10 games, suggesting his floor has risen as he's become more comfortable initiating offense. The Magic's improved pace and ball movement under Jamahl Mosley creates more assist opportunities, particularly when Suggs shares the court with willing shooters like Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. However, the modest 0.1 differential warns against blindly backing overs. Suggs can disappear as a distributor in games where Orlando struggles offensively or when he's forced into a pure scoring role. The alternating pattern in his recent games shows volatility, with his longest over streak capped at 4 games. His assist production heavily correlates with team pace and his usage rate, making game flow and matchup pace crucial factors. When Orlando faces defensive teams that force halfcourt sets, Suggs's assist opportunities diminish significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate and positive ROI suggest legitimate value, especially when Suggs plays alongside Orlando's primary scorers. Target overs when the Magic face up-tempo opponents or teams that struggle defending pick-and-roll actions. The main risk is Suggs reverting to score-first mode in tight games, limiting his distributing opportunities and capping his assist ceiling at 3-4.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Suggs's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Jalen Suggs has gone over his assists prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 60% over rate with a 6-4-0 record. This translates to a solid +14.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Suggs Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on Jalen Suggs assists props, but be selective. His 60% over rate and positive ROI show value, but target games where Orlando faces pace-up opponents or teams weak defending pick-and-roll actions for optimal conditions.
What's Jalen Suggs's average Assists last 10 games?
Jalen Suggs is averaging 4.3 assists over his last 10 games compared to the typical 4.2 line, creating a modest +0.1 differential. While slight, this edge combined with his 60% over rate suggests consistent undervaluation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jalen Suggs assists overs when Orlando faces high-pace opponents or teams that struggle defending guards in pick-and-roll situations. Avoid when the Magic play defensive-minded teams that force halfcourt sets and limit transition opportunities.