Jalen Green's three-point props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over the last 10 games with a brutal -0.4 differential against his lines. Currently riding a seven-game under streak, Green's shot selection and efficiency issues make the under the clear play.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Jalen Green's three-point struggles over this 10-game stretch. Averaging just 2.7 makes against a typical 3.1 line represents a significant 13% shortfall that goes beyond normal variance. This isn't just cold shooting—it reflects deeper issues with Green's shot selection and role within Houston's offense. The seven-game under streak indicates a fundamental shift in either his approach or the defensive attention he's receiving. When a young guard like Green consistently falls short of modest three-point expectations, it often stems from pressing too hard for difficult shots or facing increased defensive pressure as teams adjust their scouting reports. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose three-point output has become predictably disappointing. While regression toward career norms is always possible, the consistency of these unders suggests this isn't merely a cold streak but a reflection of Green's current limitations as a three-point shooter. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify a genuine trend, especially when combined with the stark differential between performance and market expectations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Green's 30% over rate and massive -0.4 differential against lines creates a clear edge that the market hasn't fully adjusted to. The seven-game under streak reflects genuine shooting struggles rather than variance. Target this prop when Green faces strong perimeter defenses or in games where Houston is expected to play at a slower pace, limiting his three-point attempts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Green's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Green has gone 3-7-0 on three-pointers made props over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He's averaging 2.7 makes against lines typically set around 3.1, creating a -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Green 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Green's 30% over rate and -0.4 differential show consistent underperformance against modest expectations. The seven-game under streak reflects genuine shooting issues, not just cold variance, making the under the clear value play.
What's Jalen Green's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Green is averaging 2.7 three-pointers made over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 3.1. This -0.4 differential represents a 13% shortfall, indicating his current three-point output consistently falls below market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Green's three-point unders when Houston faces strong perimeter defenses or plays at slower pace. His struggles are most pronounced against teams that can limit his clean looks, making these the ideal spots to capitalize on his current shooting woes.