Jalen Green's three-pointers made prop at home shows modest over value with an 18-17 record (51.4% overs) and a +0.2 average differential above the 2.27 line. Despite a current 4-game under streak, the slight edge favors the over in home environments.
Expert Analysis
Jalen Green's home three-point production presents a marginal but identifiable edge for over bettors. His 2.46 average at home consistently outpaces the typical 2.27 line, creating a meaningful 0.2 differential that translates to real value over 35 games. The 51.4% over rate suggests books may be slightly undervaluing Green's comfort level shooting at Toyota Center, where familiar rims and crowd energy can boost confidence for volume shooters. The current 4-game under streak actually strengthens the over case, as Green's shooting variance tends to correct toward his seasonal mean. His role as Houston's primary perimeter threat ensures consistent attempt volume regardless of game flow, and home games typically provide the rhythm and comfort that three-point specialists need to find their stroke. The negative ROI figures reflect typical juice costs rather than fundamental flaws in the approach. Green's youth and streaky nature create volatility, but his established role and the home court advantage provide enough stability to justify targeting overs when the line sits at his season average or below. The lack of dramatic splits suggests this edge is consistent rather than situational.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Green's +0.2 home differential above typical lines creates sustainable value, particularly after his current 4-game under streak suggests positive regression is due. Target this when lines are 2.5 or lower, as his 2.46 home average provides clear mathematical edge. Main risk is his streaky shooting nature and Houston's pace-dependent offensive system.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Jalen Green props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Green's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Jalen Green has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 18 of 35 home games (51.4% rate) with a 2.46 average versus the typical 2.27 line, showing slight over value at Toyota Center.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Green 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean over on Green's three-pointers made at home. His 2.46 average beats the typical 2.27 line, and the current 4-game under streak suggests positive regression is due for the streaky shooter.
What's Jalen Green's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Green averages 2.46 three-pointers made in home games compared to the typical 2.27 line, creating a +0.2 differential that consistently favors over bets when lines are set at his season average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Green's three-point overs at home when lines are 2.5 or lower, especially after under streaks of 3+ games when positive regression becomes more likely given his established shooting volume and role.