Jalen Green's steals prop shows a clear over bias with a 56.1% hit rate across 57 games, averaging 0.84 steals against a 0.61 line for a +0.23 differential. The 32-25-0 over record generates a solid +7.2% ROI, making this a consistent value play.
Expert Analysis
Jalen Green's steal production consistently exceeds market expectations due to his aggressive perimeter defense and improved anticipation skills in his third NBA season. The 0.84 average against a 0.61 line represents a significant 37.7% edge, suggesting books are consistently undervaluing his defensive impact. Green's length and quick hands allow him to capitalize on passing lanes, particularly against teams that rely heavily on perimeter ball movement. His steal rate has stabilized as he's gained experience reading NBA offenses, moving beyond the boom-bust pattern typical of young guards. The +7.2% ROI on overs indicates sustainable value, while the brutal -16.3% under ROI warns against fading this trend. However, the recent 1-game under streak and historical 8-game under streak show this prop can go cold. Green's steal production tends to correlate with his overall engagement level and the pace of games, making situational factors crucial. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but the overall trend strength suggests consistent defensive activity regardless of game script.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Green's 0.84 average creating a +0.23 cushion over the typical 0.61 line provides consistent value, supported by the 56.1% hit rate and positive ROI. The trend appears sustainable given his defensive development, but the lack of situational data and recent under streak prevent higher confidence. Target this prop in faster-paced games where steal opportunities increase.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Green's Steals prop record all games?
Green's steals prop record stands at 32-25-0 over/under across 57 games, hitting the over 56.1% of the time. This translates to a profitable +7.2% ROI on over bets while under bets lose -16.3%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Green Steals all games?
Bet the over on Green's steals prop. His 0.84 average significantly exceeds the typical 0.61 line, creating consistent value. The 56.1% hit rate and positive ROI support this as a reliable trend worth following.
What's Jalen Green's average Steals all games?
Green averages 0.84 steals per game compared to the standard 0.61 line, creating a +0.23 differential. This 37.7% edge over market expectations drives the consistent over performance and positive betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Green's steals overs in faster-paced games where more possessions create additional steal opportunities. Avoid during cold streaks, as he's shown ability to go 8 games under. Monitor his defensive engagement level pregame.