Jalen Brunson's assists prop shows a dominant 61.5% over rate across 78 games, hitting 48 overs against just 30 unders with a +17.5% ROI. The Knicks guard consistently exceeds his 6.5 assist line by 0.3 per game, making overs the clear value play despite a recent two-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Brunson's assist prop dominance stems from his evolution as the Knicks' primary facilitator following his breakout 2022-23 season. The 6.83 average against a 6.5 line reflects consistent playmaking opportunities in New York's offense, where he handles primary ball-handling duties and creates for teammates like Julius Randle and RJ Barrett. The 61.5% over rate demonstrates remarkable consistency, with books potentially undervaluing his distribution skills relative to his scoring reputation. The +17.5% ROI on overs versus -26.6% on unders creates a significant edge that persists across a large 78-game sample. While the current two-game under streak might concern casual bettors, it represents normal variance within longer over streaks of six games. The key factor driving this trend is Brunson's increased usage rate and responsibility as New York's floor general, creating natural assist opportunities through pick-and-roll actions and transition playmaking. Books may be slow to adjust lines upward, maintaining value on the over despite consistent evidence of Brunson's elevated assist production in his expanded role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Brunson's 61.5% over rate and positive 0.3 differential provide clear statistical edges, though the recent under streak and lack of situational splits prevent a stronger recommendation. Target overs when Brunson faces uptempo opponents or games with higher projected totals, as increased possessions naturally boost assist opportunities. The main risk is potential regression toward the mean after such strong over performance, making selective betting crucial rather than blindly backing every over.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-11 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-07 | OPP | 7.5 | 10.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 7.5 | 7.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Brunson's Assists prop record all games?
Brunson's assists prop shows a 48-30-0 record hitting overs in 61.5% of games across 78 contests. This translates to nearly two overs for every three games, with zero pushes recorded on the standard 6.5 assist line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Brunson Assists all games?
Bet the over on Brunson's assists. The 61.5% hit rate and +17.5% ROI create clear value, especially when targeting games with higher pace or when the Knicks face defensively weaker opponents that allow more assists.
What's Jalen Brunson's average Assists all games?
Brunson averages 6.83 assists per game against the standard 6.5 line, creating a positive 0.3 differential. This consistent edge above the betting line drives the strong over performance and represents genuine value for bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Brunson assist overs in uptempo games or against defensively poor teams that allow higher assist totals. Avoid betting during back-to-back situations where fatigue might limit his playmaking, though specific situational data isn't available for deeper analysis.