Jabari Smith Jr. shows a notable edge on three-pointers made props with 2+ days rest, hitting the over in 60% of his games (6-4-0 record) while averaging 1.7 makes against a typical 1.5 line. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests legitimate value in this rest-based angle.
Expert Analysis
The 60% over rate with extended rest reveals how Jabari Smith Jr. benefits from additional recovery time, particularly for his three-point shooting rhythm. Extended rest allows Smith to work on his mechanics and maintain the consistent shooting form that's crucial for a player still developing his outside shot. The +0.2 differential between his 1.7 average and the standard 1.5 line indicates books haven't fully adjusted to this rest advantage. Smith's role as Houston's primary floor-spacing forward means his three-point attempts remain consistent regardless of rest, but his efficiency clearly improves with extra preparation time. The 10-game sample provides reasonable confidence, though the modest streak patterns (longest over streak of just 2) suggest this isn't a guaranteed outcome but rather a persistent edge. The negative ROI on unders (-23.6%) reinforces that fading Smith's three-point production after extended rest has been costly. However, regression concerns exist given the relatively small sample size, and any changes to Houston's offensive system or Smith's role could impact this trend's sustainability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% hit rate and positive ROI create a legitimate edge, especially when Smith gets 2+ days to reset his shooting mechanics. Target this angle when the line sits at 1.5, as his 1.7 average provides clear value. Main risk is the limited sample size and potential for books to adjust lines, but the underlying logic of rest benefiting shooting consistency supports continued backing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jabari Smith Jr.'s 3-Pointers Made prop record 2+ days rest?
Jabari Smith Jr. has gone over his three-pointers made prop 6 times in 10 games with 2+ days rest, posting a 6-4-0 record for a 60% over rate with a +14.6% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jabari Smith Jr. 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Lean over on Jabari Smith Jr.'s three-pointers made with 2+ days rest. The 60% over rate and 1.7 average against a 1.5 line create value, though the limited sample requires medium confidence rather than heavy betting.
What's Jabari Smith Jr.'s average 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Jabari Smith Jr. averages 1.7 three-pointers made with 2+ days rest, which runs 0.2 above the typical 1.5 line. This differential has produced a +14.6% ROI for over bettors across his 10-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jabari Smith Jr.'s three-pointers made props when he has 2+ days rest and the line is set at 1.5. His improved shooting efficiency with extended recovery time creates the strongest edge in this specific rest situation.