Immanuel Quickley's three-pointers made prop at home shows a perfectly balanced 8-8 over/under record across 16 games, but his 2.88 average exceeds typical lines by 0.2 makes. The neutral ROI and current three-game over streak suggest marginal lean toward overs in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Quickley's home three-point production presents a fascinating case study in line efficiency versus actual performance. While his 50% over rate suggests bookmakers have found equilibrium, the consistent 0.2 differential between his 2.88 average and standard lines indicates subtle value exists. The Raptors guard has established himself as a reliable perimeter threat at Scotiabank Arena, where familiar shooting backgrounds and crowd energy typically benefit rhythm shooters. His current three-game over streak aligns with natural variance patterns, neither indicating hot shooting nor imminent regression. The balanced 8-8 record masks underlying consistency - Quickley rarely experiences extreme outliers in either direction at home, suggesting his role and usage remain stable regardless of game script. This stability becomes valuable when evaluating props, as dramatic swings often signal unpredictable roles or inconsistent opportunities. The neutral ROI reflects efficient market pricing, but sharp bettors can exploit the slight average differential in specific game contexts. Quickley's three-point volume at home appears less dependent on game flow than many guards, maintaining consistent attempt rates whether Toronto leads or trails. This reliability makes him an intriguing target when lines fail to account for matchup-specific advantages or when books shade toward round numbers that don't reflect his true baseline.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.2 average differential above typical lines provides consistent edge despite the balanced record. Target games against pace-up opponents or teams allowing high three-point attempt rates. Primary risk involves defensive-minded opponents who limit perimeter opportunities, but Quickley's established home role minimizes dramatic usage swings that often derail three-point props.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Immanuel Quickley's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Immanuel Quickley's three-pointers made prop at home games shows an 8-8 over/under record across 16 games, representing a perfectly balanced 50% over rate with neutral -4.5% ROI on both sides.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Immanuel Quickley 3-Pointers Made home games?
Lean toward betting over on Quickley's three-pointers made at home. His 2.88 average consistently exceeds typical lines by 0.2 makes, providing subtle but consistent value despite the balanced record.
What's Immanuel Quickley's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Quickley averages 2.88 three-pointers made in home games compared to his typical line of 2.69, creating a positive 0.2 differential that suggests consistent value on over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Quickley's three-point overs at home against pace-up opponents or teams allowing high three-point rates. Avoid when facing elite perimeter defenses that significantly limit attempt volume.